GOM Disturbance

[KatDaddy]

Prelim HPC Discussion:

...BAHAMAS/SRN FLA/NRN CARIB...
ALL MODELS TAKE A DISTURBANCE WWD FROM REMAINS OF NICHOLAS
WWD UNDER RISING HTS AND DEVELOPING MID LEVEL HIGH FROM THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX TO OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. TIMING AND TRACK A
BIT DIFFERENT BUT ALL MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM AS FAR N AS FL
STRAITS TO AS FAR S AS SRN CUBAN COAST. HAVE DEPICTED THIS
FOR PRELIMS ALONG GFS/UKMET TIMING TRACK THRU FL STRAITS AND
INTO E CENTRAL GLFMEX. LARGE SFC HIGH NWD INCREASES GRADIENT
WINDS MAINLY S OF 32N. SEE LASTEST NHC DISCUSSIONS AND
ADVISORIES.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE
1245 PM EST WED OCT 29 2003

.EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE CWFA
DURING THE PERIOD W/ ELY LOW-LEVEL LOW & ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT WILL BE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA (REMAINS OF
NICHOLAS) AS IT TRACKS WWD ACROSS FL STRAITS LATE SUN & INTO THE WRN
GULF BY WED. LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH DAY.

[PTrackerLA]

Could be something to watch considering we won't have any fronts coming down anytime soon.

[Steve]

Not only that PTLA, but the SOI has been strongly negative for several days meaning most likely that the front that came through Sunday Night was probably the last one (or at least the last one of any substance even though it only lasted a day) for a couple of weeks.

Interesting indeed.

Steve

[Rainband]

So then if the models are correct. IT if anything forms will hit Mexico after crosses under florida. Nothing to worry about