Tropical Wave Near the Coast of Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[St0rmTh0r]

This is something you’d expect to see in late August into September, not late July. The NHC is sound asleep on this one.

This is quite unsettling when the average peak of the season is in September. Of course, it is possible that the peak could occur in August this year. The peak isn't always in September. Either way, we need to monitor closely these systems emerging off the African coast. If shear and dry air diminish soon, storms could start to organize much faster than Isaias.

The reason I think this peak will last well into September through October is the developing la nina combined with other favorable factors but it will depend on how strong the nina gets. Conditions may still be very favorable late in the season. That's a scary thought after a hyperactive July!

[Extratropical94]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 20/20

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become more concentrated this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before environmental conditions become unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cainjamin]

Looking really good this morning. Maintained convection overnight and is now trying to wrap it around the weak LLC. I think we would be talking a lot more about this feature if Isaias wasn't hogging all the spotlight

[MarioProtVI]

I fail to see why this hasn’t had a STWO being upped to at least 50/50 or upgraded to a TD. Looks like a TC to me and ASCAT had a well-defined circulation.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up