Predict the rest of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

[AutoPenalti]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

If the AEWs are intense enough to produce significant SAL through peak season, then I think dry air is the last of your concerns.

There have been some indications that sinking air may become an issue down the road, Shear and SAL less-so, my initial prediction was a lot higher before this. If they don’t verify before mid-July, I may have to jump my numbers again.

[Ubuntwo]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

If the AEWs are intense enough to produce significant SAL through peak season, then I think dry air is the last of your concerns.

There have been some indications that sinking air may become an issue down the road, Shear and SAL less-so, my initial prediction was a lot higher before this. If they don’t verify before mid-July, I may have to jump my numbers again.

The latest CFS insists on an strong sinking branch developing over Africa in August against most other modeling. However, by September the +VP200 anomalies over Africa are effectively nil. In this scenario we'd see a slight reduction in wave activity in August, with little impact on activity over the rest of the basin. By peak season sinking is focused over the Pacific, to no detriment to the Atlantic.

Such a reduction in August MDR activity is not basis for such low numbers. The basin-wide conditions continue to appear favorable through ASO, especially in the Gulf and Caribbean.

[hurricanehunter69]

An ENSO well on it's way to a developing LA Nina. Very favorable conditions { save an arguably few } almost across the board, compels me to go with the 2nd most active season in history. Even in 2005 we had a 2 week lull in early August. The lull of 2020 is happening right now, although I would not be surprised to see another TS prior to mid July. I under forecasted the season by one NS to this point so......I'll go with 2/1/0 through July. 5/3/1 in August. 7/5/3 in September. 4/3/2 in October and 2/1/0 the rest of the way. 24/13/6

[chaser1]

An ENSO well on it's way to a developing LA Nina. Very favorable conditions { save an arguably few } almost across the board, compels me to go with the 2nd most active season in history. Even in 2005 we had a 2 week lull in early August. The lull of 2020 is happening right now, although I would not be surprised to see another TS prior to mid July. I under forecasted the season by one NS to this point so......I'll go with 2/1/0 through July. 5/3/1 in August. 7/5/3 in September. 4/3/2 in October and 2/1/0 the rest of the way. 24/13/6

I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to see that "lull" this season? Maybe it begins now, but at this pace i'm having a hard time believing that we won't see Gonzalo until mid-August or later.

[aspen]

With the latest tropical developments and model forecasts, I’m thinking things will play out a little differently.

Since we already have Fay, that means Gonzalo will be the late July hurricane I think we have a decent chance of seeing. EPS ensembles had some support for a system in the Gulf by 7/19, and the AEW train might start going on full throttle again later this month, so there seem to be decent chances of something forming in the NW Caribbean or W Gulf. Gonzalo will be a Cat 1 or 2, and bring only modest impacts to wherever its strikes.

With the potential for increased AEWs and more favorable MDR conditions starting in early August, I think Hannah will be the year’s first major, and will be a Caribbean beast with a track comparable to Allen ‘80 or Dean ‘07. Isaias and Josephine will also be MDR storms between mid and late August, and Kyle will form either at the very end of August or very start of September...and then that’s when the lid comes off and tropical activity goes nuts.

With six named storms only by July 10th, a hyperactive season in terms of named TCs is inevitable, even if the rest of the season follows more closely to average years. If mid July through November sees TS frequency anything like 2016-19, that means we could see anywhere from 17 to 23 total storms in 2020.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Season cancel posts hit their peak next week (I have been guilty of it in past seasons), MDR starts coming alive around July 25th, August is a record month, same as September, and around mid-October the Atlantic quiets down. Final total 24/14/7. Do not @ me haha

[TheStormExpert]

Once things do get going into August I personally think Isaias is the one to watch. Something about that name sounds intimidating besides the fact we never got through that name back in 2014. Other than that I think there will be quite a few Caribbean Cruisers/Low Riders that eventually either go straight into Central America, Mexico, or north into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Hammy]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

Really hard to see that named storm total playing out, even if we have a 2013 repeat as there were still 10 storms after this point.

[toad strangler]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

Really hard to see that named storm total playing out, even if we have a 2013 repeat as there were still 10 storms after this point.

Strange to see this kind of bust idea from a guy who sees promise in every cloud in the basin lol

[aspen]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

Really hard to see that named storm total playing out, even if we have a 2013 repeat as there were still 10 storms after this point.

Those do look like pretty good numbers for the EPac, though.

[MarioProtVI]

Season cancel posts hit their peak next week (I have been guilty of it in past seasons), MDR starts coming alive around July 25th, August is a record month, same as September, and around mid-October the Atlantic quiets down. Final total 24/14/7. Do not @ me haha

So you basically predict 2005 remastered?

[AutoPenalti]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

Really hard to see that named storm total playing out, even if we have a 2013 repeat as there were still 10 storms after this point.

Strange to see this kind of bust idea from a guy who sees promise in every cloud in the basin lol

I don’t recall ever saying that but okay...

[toad strangler]

Really hard to see that named storm total playing out, even if we have a 2013 repeat as there were still 10 storms after this point.

Strange to see this kind of bust idea from a guy who sees promise in every cloud in the basin lol

I don’t recall ever saying that but okay...

Just a friendly jab at your propensity to see the best in fledgling or struggling lower end systems. No ill will meant It would be the best possible outcome for your basin outlook to verify.

[AutoPenalti]

Strange to see this kind of bust idea from a guy who sees promise in every cloud in the basin lol

I don’t recall ever saying that but okay...

Just a friendly jab at your propensity to see the best in fledgling or struggling lower end systems. No ill will meant It would be the best possible outcome for your basin outlook to verify.

Well if this verified, I would be thrilled

But yeah my forecast will bust hardcore in the next couple of weeks. Might have to revise it.

[CFLHurricane]

Hurricane Isaias strikes me as a mid-August tempest that straddles the entire Florida east coast up into the Carolinas.

Tropical Storm Kyle is just going to be an obnoxious rainmaker.

Marco has major hurricane written all over it. Probably a Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf the way this year is going.