Area of Disturbed Weather in the Bay of Campeche

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I hope this doesn’t spin up and give SE Texas another one.
One 500 year flood per year is more than enough ...

[Astromanía]

I don't think this is going to Texas but to NE Mexico. Maybe it has a chance to develop as Fernand and Imelda did but still doesn't have model suport at all, well actually Imelda and Fernand also didn't have to much support so I don't know what to think, GOM its umpredictable. Land interaction could be affect this more than Fernand IMO coz of its lower lattitude and closer mountains on land.

[northjaxpro]

It is in a small pocket of 10-15 kt wind shear just off the north coast of the Yucatan where it is currently. The Low has tried to take advantage of this. However, there is a strong belt of southwesterly shear of 30 -40 kts , which lies just to the west and southwest of the Low pressure area currently.

This system will struggle really hard to survive that shear, if it continues the next coiple of days. It will be fightng a mighty hard battle just to make it through the next 48 hours.

Shear is so difficult to forecast, and even this could change quickly. NHC may downgrade percentages based on the latest CIMSS analysis on the next TWO coming out shortly.

[lrak]

NHC 8pm

1. A weak area of low pressure centered near the northwest coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is producing a small area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of the low is possible
while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico during the next few days. The disturbance is expected to
move inland over northeastern Mexico late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto


At least the high pressure over the SE US should swing some moisture towards S TX...fingers crossed.

[northjaxpro]

The 8:00 p.m. TWO is out and NHC has kept it at 10% and 20% for development , despite the latest CIMSS analysis. Interesting.

[AnnularCane]

I hope this doesn’t spin up and give SE Texas another one.
One 500 year flood per year is more than enough ...

Were you in Houston during Imelda? In any case, I hope everything is okay for you over there.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I hope this doesn’t spin up and give SE Texas another one.
One 500 year flood per year is more than enough ...

Were you in Houston during Imelda? In any case, I hope everything is okay for you over there.

Fortunately I was not, and my friends and family made through okay. So no need to worry about me...as long as we don't get surprised with another last minute tropical storm.

[northjaxpro]

Latest TWO is out. As I anticipated last night, an hostile environment with wind shar does not bode well for our weak area of Low Pressure just off the NW Yucatan coast.NHC downgraded percentages to 10% and 10%. for development.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a Recon at least a NOAA3 Training Mission is on it's way out there from Tampa right now on Tropical Tidbits. You can make out in visibles a small LL circulation.

[Monsoonjr99]

NHC has removed this from the TWO.

Barry, Fernand, and Imelda all had non-tropical origins, while 91L in June and this were tropical disturbances. Maybe 2019's Gulf magic only works on non-tropical disturbances?

[Hammy]

NHC has removed this from the TWO.

Barry, Fernand, and Imelda all had non-tropical origins, while 91L in June and this were tropical disturbances. Maybe 2019's Gulf magic only works on non-tropical disturbances?

When's the last time we had that many Gulf systems without a single one being of tropical origin?

[northjaxpro]

This area is trying to bounce back after encountering some hefty shear the past 36-48 hours after moving off the NW Yucatan Coast. It is now refiring convection early this morning as it moves westward into the BOC. There is a very small window for development , but this system will run out of time and open sea to develop into anything very significant.

Cyclones can spin up very rapidfly in the BOC and conditions look reasonably conducive for development going forward. I would give it a slight to medium chance we could get at least a quick TD to spin-up before it moves ashore NE Mexico in the next day or two. A TS is not out if the realm of possibility to develop down in this area before landfall as well.