Bingo!

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is what we have been waiting for...12z Nogaps says it all...Look at her blossom..

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

Destruction5

[Stormsfury]

I'm at work right now, and can't sit down and view ALL of the model guidance. The NOGAPS and the MM5 have been trying hard to spin up a system in the Western Caribbean for the past 3 days now. Yesterday (and the past few days) there have been no other model support to suggest anything substantial developing.

On Saturday, the MM5 suggested that a hurricane would be bearing down on Jamaica, the solution was backed down to a tropical storm yesterday.

Today's MM5's solution is a little like the NOGAPS but primarily keeps the system down in th Caribbean, slowly east and moves over Jamaica and then slowly NE between Eastern Cuba and Haiti/Dominican Republic.

I will examine this more closely later this evening.

SF

[wxman57]

That's definitely the place to watch for development, and I think that we'll get a storm down there. But upper-level westerly winds now reach down to the northern Caribbean. So any system developing down there would probably get shot off to the NE aross eastern Cuba to the DR, across the southern Bahamas, then out to sea. The other possibility would be a west movement into Central America. Looks like the projected upper level flow pattern would probably not allow a U.S. (Florida) landfall.

[GulfBreezer]

One last HURRAH??

[bahamaswx]

Interesting that it keeps bringing it further west and north with each run, but I doubt anything that develops would move NNW like it shows right before reaching Jamaica.