Looks like Nicholas is on the making at east atlantic

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Deep convection has formed near and over the low pressure at around 10n and banding features are starting to appear.The shear is not too hostil right now so we well may have Nicholas sooner rather than later.Wow what a CV season it has been this season with a very active one in that part of the world.

[southerngale]

Yeah, looking pretty good

[cycloneye]

Kelly in fact it looks to me like a TD as I type this at 8:16 Pm EDT.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

I posted this here to not make a new thread about the T number to consolidate the information in this thread about 93L.

[wxman57]

I agree, we should have Nicholas in 48 hours or so. But it looks like a pure fish storm, turning north around 50W. I think we need to keep our eyes focused farther west, on the Caribbean for development in 5-10 days. Florida could be affected.

[abajan]

Let's not forget that the deadliest hurricane ever to hit the Antilles did so in the middle of October. I think it was something like 20,000 fatalities. Barbados alone had something like 4000 dead.

http://nhc.nwn.noaa.gov/pastdeadly4.shtml

http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrican ... .html#1780

[cycloneye]

abajan here in Puerto Rico we haved had hurricanes making landfall in october such as San Narciso in october 29 1867. Then 211 people died here as it mafde landfall and crossed the island so it is not a surprise to see a system developing now and also keep in mind that the sst's are still warm down there where the low is so let's see what happens.

[*StOrmsPr*]

abajan here in Puerto Rico we haved had hurricanes making landfall in october such as San Narciso in october 29 1867. Then 211 people died here as it mafde landfall and crossed the island so it is not a surprise to see a system developing now and also keep in mind that the sst's are still warm down there where the low is so let's see what happens.

Right!! he was a cat 4 also when he hit PR

here some more canes and TS(directs and indirects hits) on oct for PR

1526 4-Oct H
1527 4-Oct H
1780 14-Oct H The Great Hurricane
1867 29-Oct H-4 San Narciso
1891 2-Oct TS
1891 14-Oct H-2
1894 14-Oct H-2
1898 28-Oct TS
1900 Oct 24-26 TS
1901 Oct 8-10 TS
1916 10-Oct H-3
1943 14-Oct H-1
1947 Oct 16-17 TS
1961 Oct 2-3 TS Frances
1990 7-Oct TS Klaus
1995 Oct 23-24 TS Sebastien
1999 Oct 20-21 H-1 Jose

[cycloneye]

Yes october has been fairly active in past centuries in the eastern caribbean as history shows so let's watch this system closely from the islands.

[wx247]

Still looks fairly active out there.

[stormchazer]

I agree, we should have Nicholas in 48 hours or so. But it looks like a pure fish storm, turning north around 50W.

I can't argue with your credentials wxman57 but I will say it is far south and I'll wait to see how the forecast plays out with any approaching troughs to the north before I call her fish. Seems climatology would make that a very safe bet.