Western carribean--Hot spot this week.

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Vortex
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Western carribean--Hot spot this week.

#1 Postby Vortex » Sun Oct 12, 2003 1:32 pm

various models are indicating slow development of the weak low currently off the NW coast of colombia this week. Given the time of year and pattern I think its reasonable. This system should slowly move wnw/nw and be near the NE tip of Honduras around Tuesday. More later..
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Sun Oct 12, 2003 4:42 pm

'Tis the season. Yeah, I saw some early model runs. 0Z NOGAPS wants to bring it into the EPAC though, with some energy split and remaing near the Yucatan. Didn't see the 12Z. Canadien also hinting this. Let's see if this is the one I've been waiting for.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Sun Oct 12, 2003 4:57 pm

Do ya'll think it would get into the GOM?

Just wondering.....I'm sure nothing will come this way the rest of this season. ;)
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18z ETA continues to like

#4 Postby Vortex » Sun Oct 12, 2003 6:30 pm

some development over the next several days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084l.gif
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Oct 12, 2003 7:09 pm

Currently, there isn't a lot of support for the ETA's Low in the Caribbean except the GFS, and a weak surface reflection showing up on the ECMWF at Day 4/5.

The most interesting feature, IMO, is the late season Cape Verde Wave (Invest 93L) ... the ECMWF actually latches onto this one.

SF
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#6 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 6:40 am

I agree the Caribbean may become active, but probably from next weekend through next week instead of this week. Anything moving into the NW Caribbean and then into the Gulf would likely recurve NE toward Florida.
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