I'm more than a little interested in what 10:30 TWO will say

[abajan]

After viewing various sat pix on the impressive wave in eastern Atlantic I strongly suspect the next TWO will say that a TD is forming there.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... wt20us.htm

Here is the 10:30 PM TWO that says the words tropical depression in a day or so.They may wait for the first visibles to then classifie it but to me it is a TD now as I type this at 10:23 PM.

[wxman57]

It has impressive outflow, good convection, and possibly an LLC. Certainly, it's much better organized than Mindy (which lost its circulation today). Perhaps the NHC will upgrade it tomorrow. Still looks like nothing to its north to keep it from turning north before the Islands. But it IS pretty far south now, so the turn isn't guaranteed yet.

[Stormsfury]

It has impressive outflow, good convection, and possibly an LLC. Certainly, it's much better organized than Mindy (which lost its circulation today). Perhaps the NHC will upgrade it tomorrow. Still looks like nothing to its north to keep it from turning north before the Islands. But it IS pretty far south now, so the turn isn't guaranteed yet.

They'll wait longer than they should (if it's warranted that 93L is indeed a TD or better). The further east the system, the longer they wait. Grace, Mindy and #9 were proof positive of that. So was Isabel, and #14 (which was probably briefly a TS before it was ever declared a depression) in its inception.

SF

[wxman57]

It has impressive outflow, good convection, and possibly an LLC. Certainly, it's much better organized than Mindy (which lost its circulation today). Perhaps the NHC will upgrade it tomorrow. Still looks like nothing to its north to keep it from turning north before the Islands. But it IS pretty far south now, so the turn isn't guaranteed yet.

They'll wait longer than they should (if it's warranted that 93L is indeed a TD or better). The further east the system, the longer they wait. Grace, Mindy and #9 were proof positive of that. So was Isabel, and #14 (which was probably briefly a TS before it was ever declared a depression) in its inception.

SF

Yeah, I thought the same about Kate, that the NHC would not rush to name it since it was so far out to sea, but they named it immediately. Just can't figure the NHC out. Absolutely no consistency. Would they upgrade something that looks like Mindy does now to a T D?

[bahamaswx]

Agreed. They seem far too hesitant to downgrade pathetic looking storms.

[Renata]

If this is upgraded, I see nothing that stops a curvature early. The Azores High is sufficiently far north so as not to hinder a recurve.

Having said that, however, this one is at a borderline latitude where recurving is slow to occur.

[MGC]

Glad to see that I am not the only one to notice the NHC inconsistency. I have made a joke of this fact on other weather boards. This wave has a much more impressive satellite presentation than several named systems this season. In fact, it looks much more healthy than Mindy this evening. The NHC is waiting on some visible pictures or a ship report before upgrading this one........MGC

[Anonymous]

I dunno, seems the windlfow to me is strictly west checking the visibles out. It still probably is a fish though, if it made it through the carribean and hit the US mainland, it would be a weather miracle.