12z Model suite for 91L/TD#18

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03101013

This may well be TD#18 already as I type this post as the low is more defined just SW of Cabo Rojo moving 300 degrees with 1006 mbs and winds of 30kts.But no problems for the east coast from this system as it will go out to sea and pass by Bermuda to it's east as the models show at this 12z run.

[Josephine96]

It's a little close to say "no problems for the east coast" lol..

and by the way wouldn't it be "td 17" not 18.. I dont think Larry was ever a TD except when he had his name.

Please do correct me if I'm mistaken.

[ChrisFSUWxStudent]

that Larry wasn't ever classified as a TD.. Next TD will be 18.

[wxman57]

I can't see much evidence of an LLC this morning. Certain, QuickSCAT shows nothing but a wave Looks like a sharp wave, still. As for its designation, it doesn't matter if a previous storm missed the depression stage, that next number is considered "used up". Larry would have been TD 17, but it was the 17th depression or storm. So the next one is 18.

As for east coast effects, say goodbye to this disturbance. VERY sharp/strong trof between 65-70W in its path. The only way it can go is north then northeast. The way it looks now, it may be drawn into the much larger upper low/surface low about 200 miles east of Hatteras in a few days. But by "drawn-in" I'm referring to mostly its moisture as it gets ripped apart.

[ColdFront77]

Yes indeed, the "bypassing" of a tropical wave or low to a tropical storm means that the "depression stage occurred," thus there was already a Tropical Depression 17.

The same thing occurred in this case, before Tropical Storm Mindy was declared this system was Tropical Depression 18.