I still can't believe Hurricane Lili....

[Anonymous]

It was such a blessing for Louisiana that Hurricane Lili in 2002 was a 80 mph- 100 mph landfall instead of 145 mph. It makes me wonder, what killed Lili. The night of October 2nd:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... 2kmvis.jpg

October 3rd:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/imag ... 2kmvis.jpg

Does anybody know why Hurricane Lili weakened so much. The night before landfall, the northern Gulf recored some of the strongest winds ever. Hurricane hunters recored flight level winds of 211 mph!!! Did the trough push Lili north too soon? The first forecast had Lili inland in extreme western Louisiana, but it hit middle Louisiana coast, did dry air entrain, shear kick up, or did Isidore's cool wake from when he finally started to rapidly intensify kill her. Any comments on that amazing and grateful event a year ago?

[Stormsfury]

A combination of a lot of things contributed to Lili's rapid weakening.

1) An eyewall replacement cycle
2) Increasing shear
3) Cooler SST's

This was discussed quite a bit and others have a LOT more information regarding Lili than I do.

SF

[CajunMama]

She never stood a chance hitting a predominately Catholic area....there were too many Hail Marys and Novenas being said!!!!! LOL

Also, Isadore had churned up the waters a week or so before (but that's my opinion)

[wxman57]

I don't buy the cooler SST theory at all, as Lili also reached peak intensity over those exact same "cooled" waters. Water just a degree or two cooler won't produce such rapid weakening.

I do think that Lili's outflow was enhanced by a small upper-level low to its northwest over the NW Gulf. That low probably aided outflow enough for Lili to reach Cat 4, without imparting significant shear. Three things happened 6-12 hours before landfall that I think led to the rapid weakening:

1. The upper low to the northwest of Lili was whisked off to the northeast by an approaching upper-level trof. This likely severely hampered Lili's outflow. If a storm can't get the air out as fast as it's rushing in, rapid weakening may occur.

2. With its outflow restricted, Lili began encountering increasing vertical wind shear 6-8 hours before landfall. Strong vertical wind shear can cause rapid weakening.

3. Dry air was entrained into the center just prior to landfall. This helped t reduce squalls near Lili's center, also leading to weakening.

[AussieMark]

Didn't Dry air moving south from the United States disturb Lili's outflow which lead to a rapid weakening phase.

[Mr Bob]

Agree with wx57 on the SSTs...this is another example of a GOM storm with a very small eye that significantly deepened then collapsed, and I wonder without having read any suc studies if such a small eye is supportive of short term strong hurricanes. I would think that timing is critical to these types of storms as to how much damage and destruction they wreak depenedent on the replacement cycle (ala Camille, Opal and Elena versus Bret, Lili, etc). Shearing had something to do with it but I am not sure it is the main story here and I am sure there will be quite a few papers publish in the coming months....

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Bret was an extremely dangerous category 4 as it beared down on the coast of Texas, and was still a major category 3 storm when it hit land, and still had his famous Andrew-like appearance, Bret just hit a rural area.

http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/photos/ ... 92200z.gif

I'm glad we didn't see this with Lili:

http://jrscience.wcp.muohio.edu/photos/ ... i822am.gif

[Mr Bob]

Is Bret in the same category as Fran, Opal, Allen, Frederic or other cat threes that hit the US....I do not think so. Even if it hit Brownsville dead on I wonder if it would have done as much damage as any of those except in a very small confined area

[Stormsfury]

I don't buy the cooler SST theory at all, as Lili also reached peak intensity over those exact same "cooled" waters. Water just a degree or two cooler won't produce such rapid weakening.

I do think that Lili's outflow was enhanced by a small upper-level low to its northwest over the NW Gulf. That low probably aided outflow enough for Lili to reach Cat 4, without imparting significant shear. Three things happened 6-12 hours before landfall that I think led to the rapid weakening:

1. The upper low to the northwest of Lili was whisked off to the northeast by an approaching upper-level trof. This likely severely hampered Lili's outflow. If a storm can't get the air out as fast as it's rushing in, rapid weakening may occur.

2. With its outflow restricted, Lili began encountering increasing vertical wind shear 6-8 hours before landfall. Strong vertical wind shear can cause rapid weakening.

3. Dry air was entrained into the center just prior to landfall. This helped t reduce squalls near Lili's center, also leading to weakening.

Let me clarify the cooler SST's (which wasn't exactly the correct usage here). Lili traversed an area of the GOM which had higher SST's and a high TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential). I didn't have a chance to study all the facts regarding Lili and glad more people could elaborate on this. I need to sit down and look at some SST maps from that timeframe (I'm at work right now on lunch) and see if there was any significant cold wakes leftover from Isidore. But anyway, probably wouldn't have been much of a factor.

Lili left that area of TCHP and probably a very warm eddy of SST's. I agree that the ULL and outflow impinged significantly on Lili. At the same time, I do believe Lili was getting ready to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle anyway at the same time it encountered the more hostile environment. Lili had absolutely no chance to reorganize and with the leading eyewall collapsing, and the inability to replace a new one with the conditions aforementioned, rapid weakening was the result.

Lili took advantage of everything it had going for it and reached 145 mph. Later, it had virtually everything against it.

SF

[PTrackerLA]

Lol CM, I think there was some divine intervention. I'm so thankful Lili weakened, it was not a good feeling wondering whether or not my house would make it through the storm but after she was down to 100mph at landfall we relaxed and enjoyed the show.

[MGC]

Dry air, shear and plenty of prayers got Lili. No way SST alone would have caused such rapid weakening. Lili just dried up and the top was blown off........MGC