Bahamas system

[george_r_1961]

An area of low pressure over the Bahamas is not showing tropical development a this time but there is a chance for some subtropical or hybrid development of this system over the weekend. Remember this is October and tropical systems often evolve out of this scenario.

[hurricanedude]

And JB suggesting a northward movement towards, you guesssed it...Virginia...how nice....NOT!!! :o
And with most of the trees either blown over or leaning over, any storm would cause more down trees and powerlines..
GRRRRRR

[Stormsfury]

Some of the models have been hinting at something. Whether or not it becomes tropical is up for grabs. Interestingly enough, the EURO tonight is hinting as something tropical but staying well offshore of the East Coast in the MR (and not the entity we're going to be dealing with in the shorter term).

Back to the low which develops in the short term (from an inverted trough and yes, it wants to move it NW into VA.) However, there's another 500mb s/w in the mean flow that ends up around the Upstate of South Carolina on Day 3.

Day 3 EURO MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 3 EURO 500mb GEO Heights.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4 EURO MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4 EURO 500mb GEO Heights
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

I've seen a little bit of support from the CMC ensembles earlier today at work but ATT, I cannot state with any certainty that this system is going to be tropical, subtropical, or a hybrid. This low IMO, looks more to be of a gale center than anything else.

Day 3 CMC ensemble members
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSCMCPRS_0z/f72.gif

Day 4 CMC ensemble members
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSCMCPRS_0z/f96.gif

The MM5 has this low developing from baroclinic effects as well but keeps it offshore.

MM5 MSLP Loop (60 hours)
http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html

MM5 500mb Absolute Vorticity Loop (60 hours) - Notice TWO s/w's within the mean flow at the 500mb level.
http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.500vor.html

The GFS also shows this low IMO as a baroclinic feature from an inverted trough and pulled northwestward into the large Eastern Canada low which becomes neg tilted.

GFS 12z MSLP Loop (240 hours)
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_pres_loop.gif

GFS 12z 500mb GEO Heights Loop(240 hours)
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_500p_loop.gif

ETA 12z 500mb Absolute Vorticity Loop (84 hours)
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etaus500v2.html

ETA 12z MSLP/QPF loop/1000-500 mb thickness Loop (84 hours)
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

IMO, the low pressure system is a baroclinicly driven storm and not a tropical system (though it may work with some tropical moisture) and does have some potential to be a gale center. Heads up, either way.

SF