000
WTPZ35 KNHC 060247
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003
...OLAF MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
ON MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLAF.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OLAF PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.
RAINBANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...17.8 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
OLAF #11 - ADVISORY
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AussieMark
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OLAF #11 - ADVISORY
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