LARRY #15 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 050832
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003

LARRY IS A SMALL AND TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM. THREE CONSECUTIVE
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER WAS STILL OFFSHORE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE 996 MB WITH A FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WIND OF 61 KNOTS JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWED A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KNOTS BUT LARRY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.

LARRY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS. IF
THE CIRCULATION SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRRAIN...LARRY COULD REDEVELOP
ONCE IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. IT SHOULD THEN MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 18.4N 93.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.0N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 94.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 08/0600Z 15.0N 96.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 09/0600Z 15.0N 97.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 10/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER