000
WTNT32 KNHC 041431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2003
...LARRY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO CAMPECHE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...120 KM...NORTHWEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.
LARRY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR...
AND A GENERAL SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING LARRY
CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLY
OCCURRING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA AS LARRY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LARRY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 93.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
11 AM ON LARRY: DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
wrkh99
-
Josephine96
-
wrkh99
-
wrkh99
-
wrkh99
I will post the 1pm adv . Come on people !
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on October 04, 2003
...Larry moving southward toward Mexico...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from tuxpan to Campeche.
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 93.7 west or about
75 miles...120 km...north of Villahermosa Mexico.
Larry is moving toward the south near 7 mph... 11 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion will bring Larry closer to the coast of Mexico
today...with landfall possibly occurring by Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are estimated to
be occurring at this time. An additional 2 to 3 feet of storm surge
can be expected near and on the western side of the center within
the warning area as Larry moves closer to the coast.
Locally heavy rains associated with Larry are also possible
over portions of southeastern Mexico. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...18.8 N... 93.7 W. Movement
toward...south near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on October 04, 2003
...Larry moving southward toward Mexico...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from tuxpan to Campeche.
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 93.7 west or about
75 miles...120 km...north of Villahermosa Mexico.
Larry is moving toward the south near 7 mph... 11 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion will bring Larry closer to the coast of Mexico
today...with landfall possibly occurring by Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are estimated to
be occurring at this time. An additional 2 to 3 feet of storm surge
can be expected near and on the western side of the center within
the warning area as Larry moves closer to the coast.
Locally heavy rains associated with Larry are also possible
over portions of southeastern Mexico. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flood and mudslides.
Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...18.8 N... 93.7 W. Movement
toward...south near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
-
ColdFront77