5 PM discussions and currents on 4 tropical entities

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. 4 tropical systems to talk about this evening, 2 in the Atlantic basin and 2 more in the eastern Pacific. Definitely an active time.

At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Kate has strengthened even further. Kate is a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds increasing to 125 mph with higher gusts. Winds need to be 131-155 mph to be considered a category 4 hurricane and Kate is nearing that threshold. Fluctuations in strength are likely with Kate over the next 24 hours followed by slow weakening after that. At 5 PM, Kate was centered about 625 miles east southeast of Bermuda. Kate was moving towards the west at 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue through tonight with a turn toward the west northwest beginning on Sunday.

Minimum central pressure has fallen from 962 mb/ 28.41 inches down to 952 mb or 28.11 inches. A drop of 10 millibars in 6 hours. No wonder this thing has strengthened recently.

Still keep en eye on Kate if you're in the St Johns, Newfounderland area and in Iceland over the next 3-5 days. Otherwise no other impacts are anticipated with Kate.

At 4 PM CDT Tropical Storm Larry is still spinning over the southern Bay Of Campeche and should make landfall within the next 12-24 hours. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remains in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Tuxpan over to Campeche, Mexico. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Most of the hurricane force winds if there is any will be situated along the immediate coast only in gusts. Sustained winds should remain below hurricane strength during landfall, which is now forecast to occur sometime on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Larry was centered about 40 miles north northwest of Villahermosa, Mexico. It's definitely not too far from land at this stage of the game. Larry is moving south at 4 mph and this south motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Very little change in strength is anticipated prior to the impending landfall on Sunday. Minimum central pressure with larry is 996 mb or 29.41 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of about 3-5 feet above normal tide levels are expected in areas west of where the center makes landfall because of the onshore component to the wind. In addition strong tropical storm force winds are expected at landfall sometime tomorrow. Wind and surge will be minimal. It's heavy rain that will grab our attention between Tuxpan and Campeche, Mexico. Devastating flash floods and mudslides are likely given the slow movement of tropical storm Larry. Rainfall amount could easily be measured in feet, not inches. Combine that with the normal wet season and things are not looking good from a rainfall standpoint.

Meanwhile in the eastern pacific, two tropical cyclones to talk about today. Hurricane Nora still have 105 mph maximum sustained winds. Nora is centered near latitude 17.7 north, longitude 112.3 west. Movement is towards the northwest at around 9 mph with a minimum central pressure of 970 mb. Nora is not expected to reach land as a hurricane. However it's remnants could bring rain and some gusty wind to the central Baja California coast in the next several days or so. Large waves are good for surfers in Baja and that can be expected with this hurricane. Some swells are likely in southern California as well in the order of 5-6 feet over the next few days.

Meanwhile tropical storm Olaf is getting better organized with 65 mph winds now. Olaf is centered at latitude 15.3 north, longitude 102.5 west. Strengthening to hurricane status is expected and Olaf is expected to parallel the west Mexican coast for the next few days. Heavy rain squalls are possible from outer bands throughout the beginning of the week along the west Mexican coast on the current projected track. Any deviation to the right however would bring the eye or the center of Olaf near the west Mexican coast during the upcoming week. It's something to watch and watches and warnings maybe neccessary as Olaf draws closer to the west Mexican coast.

That's the tropics at this time. More later.