LARRY #11 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT42 KNHC 040828
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PRESENTATION IS A LITTLE
BETTER TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL
REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO FAR IS 46 KNOTS. I WAS
TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT BECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. LARRY HAS A
CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
FURTHER INTERACT WITH LAND.

LARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING
THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING
LARRY NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 19.4N 94.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 19.3N 94.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 18.9N 94.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 18.1N 94.3W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.8N 94.4W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z 17.6N 94.5W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0600Z 17.0N 95.0W 20 KT...INLAND