KATE #35 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 040826
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003

KATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS. KATE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER SHEAR AND THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 96 HOURS.

THE EXPECTED TURN IS ALREADY BEGINNING AND KATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BY 72
HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL HAS KATE PASSING JUST
EAST OF EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 30.3N 52.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 30.7N 54.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 57.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 57.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 46.0N 53.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 55.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 62.0N 16.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL