FRONT SHIELD N.ORLEANS?CH4,8DISAGREE;NEEDED?

[john186292]

Will the Sunday front pass new orleans and shield n. orleans from any Larry threat?

Ch. four..Gumm...says yes will pass us and go south...Ch. eight..breck...says weak and not get to us. Ch. twenty six did not mention, that I heard. Might have missed it somehow on 26, tho fairly sure he not mention it.

NHC discussion five pm our time, fri. , not mention front as a factor in the course of Larry. Neither as a shield, or disappointing absence of a shield. Just no mention.

So how necessary is this once-welcomed front as a shield for the most important city on the planet LOL? How sure of a mexican doom are the oracles, with no front smashing Larry south? Just how sure? Percentage of surety needed, as best they can estimate.
John New Orleans

[Steve]

Early indications were that Sunday's front would be pretty strong and barrel into the Gulf. As of yesterday, some of the models began to back off. I watched two channels and they both have us in/near the low 80's for the next week or so. I'm assuming a dry line makes it through and kind of washes out near or within a couple hundred miles south of here. Regardless, Larry isn't a threat to New Orleans IMHO and never was. 8-10 day GFS ensembles do show some uncertanties off the Gulf Coast. We wait and we watch.

Steve

[john186292]

hi,
and ..
What prevents larry from coming to Canal St,
what with no front?

two...gfs...these uncertainties..means...what? new TS/TD's? or Larry still dancing around?

good post, keep inputting, always glad to see your ideas.
john

PS 26 tv, says best of all...into Mex by ..get this...SUNDAY NIGHT..if my memory is right. Might have said mon morning, but i was shocked by how early he sees it gone. Still wonder if 26 folks have degrees in met.

[BayouVenteux]

The front is being forecast by the NWS as less and less of an impact with each update. But that's not the stopper as far as we're concerned with the ol' Lar-meister. The two highs that are nullifying any steering current at present will likely modify over the next day or two, with the Caribbean high pulling back to the E and weakening, while the Mexican high (no Cheech & Chong jokes from the old timers, please.) will strengthen and along with it the northerly steering winds that will take the system on South, down Mexico way and eventually into the EPAC.

So New Orleans and all of south Louisiana is in the clear. Enjoy your weekend and please don't forget to get out and vote!