Tropics at 5 PM, satellite and tropical WX discussion...

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. It's 5 PM EDT and time for your tropical update. A very busy time with two tropical cyclones in the Atlantic as depicted in this enhanced satellite image http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF and there are two named tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific as seen here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg. Both east pac cyclones are tropical storms, twin tropical storms if you will. Also notice on that picture, the triangle of tropical storms. It's Definitely a busy day today.

Starting out in the central subtropical Atlantic where Hurricane Kate is the third major hurricane of the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane season. At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Kate is the third major hurricane of the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The center of Hurricane Kate was located about 905 miles east southeast of Bermuda. Kate was moving toward the west at 12 mph. A turn to the west northwest is anticipated over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. This makes Kate a category 3 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Some more strengthening is possible tonight. Minimum central pressure is now 962 mb or 28.41 inches.

Kate is definitely a textbook hurricane and is looking healthy at this stage of the game. Satellite imaginary, first the infrared loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html shows the west motion first of all. Secondly it shows the colder cloud tops surrounding the eye of the hurricane. Definitely a classic hurricane and very symmetric as well with the well defined eye right in the middle of the central dense overcast. Kate looks to peak in intensity later tonite or Saturday morning, because notice those clouds moving into the left side of the picture. Definitely a trough, which will pick up Kate and move her more northerly as we head on through the weekend. Folks in the New Brunswick and New Founderland area might want to keep an eye on kate as she could still be a strong extratropical system about 4-5 days out nearby.

A visible satellite loop of kate is shown here. http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... flvis.html Obviously it's getting dark over Kate. However check out that studium effect eye it has. Definitely a signature for a major hurricane and quite breathtaking on satellite. Luckily the U.S. and Bermuda are not threatened in any way by this thing, which is good news.

Elsewhere in the tropics tonight, We still have tropical storm Larry to talk about. It looks better organized today with some falling pressure readings. The tropical storm warnings and the hurricane watch remain the same between Veracruz and Campeche, Mexico. At 5 PM EDT, the center of Tropical storm Larry was located about 110 miles east northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Larry is drifting erractically southwest. This erractic motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. However it could also stall at times like it did earlier today. That indeed is a possibility. Maximum sustained winds with Larry are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 995 mb or 29.38 inches.

Satellite imaginary http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html shows the explosion of convection in areas mainly to the east and southeast of the center where some of the strongest winds are at the moment. The main reason for that is some westerly shear aloft and dry air entraining into the west side of the circulation. Larry is not the same kind of animal as Kate is. But it's interesting to see how busy things really are. The big worry for the coastal areas of the Bay Of Campeche is some storm surge, especially where winds blow onshore. But heavy rains, flash floods, and mudslides has already occurred and that could very well continue to be the case and get worse I'm afraid over the next several days. Rainfall is the big worry between Veracruz and Campeche, Mexico. 1-2 feet of rain is not uncommon in this area. That's on top of the daily rains they see during the wet season this time of year. Not a good setup for sure. The Atlantic will certainly be watched and monitored for the next several days as long as tropical cyclones continues.

If you haven't had enough of tropical cyclones, there are yet two more tropical storms to talk about in the eastern Pacific this afternoon, twin tropical storms if you will. Tropical Storm Nora is centered at 16.2 north, 109.9 west. Nora is still several hundered miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph and Nora is expected to strengthen to hurricane status later tonite as she moves towards the northwest. However Nora is not expected to threaten Baja California at this time. Meanwhile Olaf located just southeast of Nora has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts. Only slow strengthening is expected with Olaf over the next few days and he is also no threat to any land areas in the near term.

Satellite loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html depicts both tropical storms spinning towards the northwest very slowly. Quite a scene indeed with twin tropical storms in the eastern Pacific and yes that's Larry spinning in the Bay Of Campeche. The triangle of tropical storms in through here. Definitely very interesting and we definitely don't see this occur very often.

That's it with the tropics for this time. More updates later.

Jim