Opal, Roxanne reanalysis, and forecasted analysis of Larry

[Stormsfury]

October 3rd, 1995 Reanalysis of the 500mb heights

October 4th, 1995 Reanalysis of the 500mb heights

October 4th, 1995 Reanalysis of the 500mb heights @ 12z

October 5th, 1995 Reanalysis of the 500mb heights @ 0z

Now let's compare those maps to Larry ...

Tonight's 7 day loop of the EURO - Trough nowhere NEAR where it was in October 1995 which pulled Opal up

GFS also pretty much in agreement with the placement of the 500mb trough - nowhere near where the trough was with Opal

Now compare this to the trough placement with Roxanne in the BOC back in October 1995.

October 15th, 1995 @ 0z

October 16th, 1995 @ 0z

SF

[JetMaxx]

Exactly right Mike....the current and forecast upper air setup is totally different than when Opal occurred...

Tonight's upper air and surface charts look more like mid-November than early October....unusually cold and dry over the east. On October 3, 1995 it was warm and sticky in Atlanta....the total opposite of the near record cold we are experiencing tonight.

Nice analysis comparism....thanks!

[cycloneye]

In other words Larry wont be a US gulf problem at all but to old Mexico because of the synoptic pattern this year that wont allow any movement to the NE.

[Amanzi]

Excellent discussion SF!!! Thanks for that

[Mr Bob]

Yes, I remember Opal well and there was no question that A) Opal would develop, B) that it would come up to the Gulf Coast and C) Do it in a hurry. Timing and strength were the only issues well in advance.

Larry on the other hand has little chance to get pulled out. There are also issues with whether or not Larry will even develop....there is another round of deep convection firing now and may result in further pressure drop but the proximity to land, light shear and eventually cooler upwelling would have to be counted as negative factors. It is so weird to have a hurricane with the same name as my cat...if there is any similarity this storm will laze around and get fat but not do much of anything!

[JCT777]

It is so weird to have a hurricane with the same name as my cat...if there is any similarity this storm will laze around and get fat but not do much of anything!

LOL! And that is actually possible, if Larry does not head into Mexico.

Good discussion, SF.

[EmeraldCoast1]

Yes, I remember Opal well and there was no question that A) Opal would develop, B) that it would come up to the Gulf Coast and C) Do it in a hurry. Timing and strength were the only issues well in advance.

I totally disagree with you on all three points, unless, of course, you are referring to Opal on Oct. 4 and not earlier.

[Mr Bob]

Well, you are entitled to your opinion, I suppose, but it would be nice if you would support it.

[JetMaxx]

Yes, I remember Opal well and there was no question that A) Opal would develop, B) that it would come up to the Gulf Coast and C) Do it in a hurry. Timing and strength were the only issues well in advance.

I totally disagree with you on all three points, unless, of course, you are referring to Opal on Oct. 4 and not earlier.

There was no doubt in most meteorologists minds (certainly not mine) that Opal had the potential to become a major hurricane....even 2-3 days before she began to accelerate NNE toward the Gulf Coast....the signs were there in the model guidance and projected enviroment in Opal's path (including a warm sst eddy of 85° in the GOM).

I was living in Jackson, Mississippi at the time, and remember telling my co-workers at EDS on October 2nd that Opal was potentially a very dangerous hurricane....and would likely accelerate toward the middle or eastern Gulf Coast ahead of a deepening trough; and would likely intensify to a cat-3 hurricane....I was thinking 120-125 mph (similar to Hilda in Oct. 1964).

By late evening on October 3rd, the central pressure was already down to 948 mb with 115 mph sustained winds. I called my loved ones here in West Georgia and told them to expect wind gusts of 60 mph or more...with many trees down and widespread power outages (I was expecting a 120-125 mph hurricane at landfall...similar to 1975's Eloise).

I'll admit I was surprised to awaken in the pre-dawn hours of October 4th and find a 150-155 mph (916 mb) monster roaring NNE....no one could have ever forecast that degree of deepening (because it had never happened before in an October GOM hurricane). I immediately called my parents and grandmother here in Atlanta to tell them hurricane Opal was a monster similar to Camille and to expect wind gusts here of over 100 mph and major damage.

I was scared to death for them....but fortunately Opal weakened even faster than she intensified, and ended up slamming the Florida panhandle with about the intensity I was forecasting on October 2-3 (115-120 mph)....winds here in this area reached 65-70 mph and power was out three days.

[Mr Bob]

Agreed, Perry...many mouths fell open when that recon came in...as I said earlier, strength and timing were the only real issues...perhaps for EmeraldCoast1, NHC did not allude too much to the track and destination but where i was working it was becoming more obvious as the disturbance tracked over the Yucatan before it ever reached the BOC that it was going to cause trouble to the NE Gulf Coast once it got its act together...