7 PM CDT advisory on TS Larry=50 mph 1003 mbs STATIONARY

[cycloneye]

http://www.hwn.org/hapt32us.htm

This is the special advisory on Larry that is stationary now so about future track forecast let's see what happens but it will be meandering in that area for a while.

[Dean4Storms]

Larry is pinched off and in a weak steering environment for now. But come sometime on Fri. the flow from the south coming around in advance of the next trough for the weekend should begin to eject Larry North and then eastward. Moving in the same direction as the UL shear (w to e) it should lessen the effect enough for Larry to maintain TC status, possibly even as a hurricane with the help of tight pressure gradients and landfall somewhere between Mobile, AL to Tampa, FL.

This is my best take from now and things could change. By no means should anybody consider this written in stone.

I called this one over a week ago and I have been pretty much on time, development area and intensity so far. Hopefully I can bat 1000 on this one!

[Derecho]

I called this one over a week ago and I have been pretty much on time, development area and intensity so far. Hopefully I can bat 1000 on this one!

I haven't seen much from you other than "ITZ OPAL AGAIN AAIIIEEEEE!!!!!" based merely on the premise that it's one of hundreds of tropical cyclones to have formed in the same general area as Opal, and Opal is the only one of those which you apparently remember or are aware of, which isn't exactly the world's most sophisticated forecast technique.

And the whole self-promotional bragging thing for forecasting comes across as so cheesy; sort of a Methane Mike move, really.

NHC, by the way, show essentially no movement through 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Yes Dean I remember when you said about this scenario 10 days ago to be exact.

[george_r_1961]

Forecasting a storm to form in that area in late September/early October is like forecasting snow in Montana in sometime during a 10 day period in January.

[Rainband]

Forecasting a storm to form in that area in late September/early October is like forecasting snow in Montana in sometime during a 10 day period in January.

Be nice

[Rainband]

I called this one over a week ago and I have been pretty much on time, development area and intensity so far. Hopefully I can bat 1000 on this one!

I haven't seen much from you other than "ITZ OPAL AGAIN AAIIIEEEEE!!!!!" based merely on the premise that it's one of hundreds of tropical cyclones to have formed in the same general area as Opal, and Opal is the only one of those which you apparently remember or are aware of, which isn't exactly the world's most sophisticated forecast technique.

And the whole self-promotional bragging thing for forecasting comes across as so cheesy; sort of a Methane Mike move, really.

NHC, by the way, show essentially no movement through 5 days.

Due to the adverse conditions this storm formed in..I say kudos to dean.. Be nice derecho

[Dean4Storms]

I called this one over a week ago and I have been pretty much on time, development area and intensity so far. Hopefully I can bat 1000 on this one!

I haven't seen much from you other than "ITZ OPAL AGAIN AAIIIEEEEE!!!!!" based merely on the premise that it's one of hundreds of tropical cyclones to have formed in the same general area as Opal, and Opal is the only one of those which you apparently remember or are aware of, which isn't exactly the world's most sophisticated forecast technique.

And the whole self-promotional bragging thing for forecasting comes across as so cheesy; sort of a Methane Mike move, really.

Your momma never taught you any manners, heh? Your jealousy is shining THROUGH!!!! Thanks for your way of a pat on the back.

Don't hang your hat on the NHC forecast for now, they are aware, unlike you, that most of the Globals have not been initializing anything more than a weak wave of low pressure. The only one that has, the CMC, depicts exactly what we have now, a TC. So because the NHC will be cautious here before ringing alarm bells, they will wait for these other globals to be intialized with a 1003mb TC and then wait and let's see what happens to the forecast track.

NHC, by the way, show essentially no movement through 5 days.

[wxman57]

The 18Z GFDL is now available on Penn State's web site. It moves Larry west and inland into Mexico in 60-72 hours, dissipating it by 84hrs. I think this is more likely than it remaining stationary for 5 days, even with a strong cold front moving by late Sunday.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

Here's the main Penn State model page:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/