KATE #23 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2003

THE CLOUD PATTERN OVERALL IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CURVED
BAND WRAPPING AROUND A CENTER. IN FACT...WE COULD MAKE A CASE FOR A
BANDING TYPE EYE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS
TIME AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND KATE IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER WATERS...A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL.
THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING KATE TO HURRICANE STATUS
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND INCREASES THE WINDS TO 87 KNOTS IN ABOUT 4
DAYS. MAYBE THIS IS TOO MUCH BUT THE GFDL HAS BEEN FAIRLY GOOD IN
SHOWING INTENSITY TRENDS.

KATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE
UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS
NO CHOICE BUT ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOUTHWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST GFS..GFDL...NOGAPS AND THE
CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS. THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS IS ALSO INDICATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 32.4N 38.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 32.1N 40.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 31.5N 43.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 45.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 31.0N 47.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 51.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 54.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 35.0N 57.0W 60 KT


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[rainstorm]

thanks mark