Kate, and GOM/BOC disturbance as of 11 PM EDT...

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. First on the agenda is tropical storm Kate, which continues to churn in the eastern Atlantic tonight with maximum sustained winds of near 60 mph with higher gusts as of 11 PM EDT.

At 11 PM EDT, the center of tropical storm kate was located about 1570 miles east of Bermuda. The coordinates if you're plotting at home is latitude 32.5 degrees north, longitude 37.7 degrees west.

Kate is moving toward the west at near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. However upper level winds may relax a bit over the next 2-3 days and allow Kate to strengthen possibly back to hurricane status within the next 48 hours or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 145 miles from the center at 5 PM. So the wind field is getting larger relative to tropical storm force sustained winds. Minimum central pressure is 997 mb or 29.44 inches.

Meanwhile the Gulf Of Mexico is busy tonite with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph within a strong thunderstorm complex along a stalled out frontal boundary in the southern Gulf Of Mexico into the Bay Of Campeche. A broad low pressure system is also trying to develop. However it's not tropical characteristics as of yet as there is more frontal or baroclinic characteristics.

Recon detected maximum flight level winds of 51 knots-59 mph at 1500 feet. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. It's still a broad low pressure, which is attached to a frontal zone over the Bay Of Campeche. It's not purely tropical as of yet. But sometimes tropical systems can develop along the tail end of frontal zones and this one could potentially do that. Just north of the disturbance, winds in the upper levels are roaring from the southwest at 50-70 mph. A stronger trough moving southeast into the north Gulf will only enhance the winds up there. Plus the air is dry along the US Gulf coast from Texas over into the Florida Panhandle.

An indirect effect already being felt is the coastal flooding along the south Texas coast from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. A coastal flood warning is in effect as well as a small craft advisory and a heavy surf advisory overnight. Persistent northeasterly winds of 20-30 knots has increased seas to 8-10 feet just off the Texas coastline tonight. Some offshore data indicates seas in the 12-15 foot range. A choppy Gulf Of Mexico tonight for sure.

Earlier today, Park Police in Padre Island reported coastal flooding of the beaches at South Padre Island. The next high tide is expected to occur at 10:25 PM central daylight time tonight and is expected to be 2.1 feet above mean lower low water.

A coastal flood warning means that coastal flooding is immient or is already occuring or will occur within the next 12 hours. Significant coastal erosion and coastal flooding is expected on area beaches along the south Texas coast through Thursday. Persons along the south Texas coast are urged to take the neccessary precautions to safeguard life and property if you haven't done so.

Rip currents are also a dangers and could drown even the strongest swimmer. Do not attempt to get out into the Gulf Of Mexico until winds and seas subside along the south Texas coast. It's very dangerous and could cause lost of life. We don't want to lose life here.

More updates on this coastal flood situation and the tropical distubance in the Bay Of Campeche as I get it.

Jim