After looking at the latest sat images, I have to say that a TD is most likely forming, albiet a weak, 25KT TD. Convection is begining to fire aorund the low, though it is not exactly consolidating at this time.
We may see further slow development into a weak TS in the next few days, but this shouldn't become fully tropical or become a subtropical hurricane either
Looks like a TD is forming
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ColdFront77
It sure looks like something is getting its act together. Convection has been persistent and looking quite impressive, with some very cold cloud tops in the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico.
The only way even slight development can happen is if the frontal system weaken, which has been expected and apparently is happening. The warm air over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters is apparently causing the front to washout.
The only way even slight development can happen is if the frontal system weaken, which has been expected and apparently is happening. The warm air over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters is apparently causing the front to washout.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Sep 30, 2003 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ColdFront77
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dixiebreeze
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I think this system may surprise a few people. A tropical cyclone will develop over time IF this stays over water, which a couple of models are suggesting, as the core temperature will warm by the weekend. IF this stays over water through the weekend, we will be looking at hurricane Larry. There is just as good a chance that it will go into Mexico. But IF not, this system could mean business. My two cents, but that's the way I see it. 
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vbhoutex
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At the earliest the CAA will lessen sometime late this week or this weekend. A reinforcing shot of cold air, another front, is due in here tomorrow. That will only serve to lessen the chances of anything happening till at least this weekend if not later, IMO. We are expecting another on Sunday, so I see the chances as becoming slimmer, not better. That being said, I have not looked at Sats in several hours and things can change substantially in that amount of time.
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