A BIT SURPRISED......

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dixiebreeze
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A BIT SURPRISED......

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:18 am

that the NHC has not issued a "Tropical Disturbance" statement. Mostly because of the proximity of the deepening convection to the Florida west coast. I realize there may not yet be an LLC, but there sure is a lot of "tropical disturbance." :?
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:25 am

I have to agree Dixie.. even if it's just a statement to let us know it's out there..
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:25 am

Pressures are not that low in the GOM along Fla. west coast and mid-gulf, and the area of interest is closer to the BOC -- thus the reason for no Tropical Disturbance advisory, I expect.
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:27 am

Dixie.. that would sound about right and btw.. early congratulations on becoming the newest tropical storm.
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Stormcenter
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No reason too.

#5 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:30 am

I think the reason why nothing has been issue is because there is no reason too. Whatever is out there is not moving anywhere fast and at the moment not toward Florida. It will probably sit out there for awhile.
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:32 am

You may be right storm.. Give Dixie her credit on becoming a TS by the way lol.. she's almost there
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Stormcenter
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Satellite image

#7 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 30, 2003 9:34 am

As you can see the "main" two areas of convection are basically stationary. Some the thunderstom activity not associated with either blob may end up affecting the Fl. west coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Sep 30, 2003 1:48 pm

The longer convection of this size stays over warmer sea surface temperatures with decreasing upper level wind shear the more of a chance of tropical development.

The frontal boundary washing out over the peninsula would mean the dissipation of the frontal system over the Gulf of Mexico, as well which would increase the chances of development without the cool air advection being as strong as it has been the last few days.
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#9 Postby lilbump3000 » Tue Sep 30, 2003 1:52 pm

Im not to certain that this would go into flordia, i say from the louisiana coast to the flordia panhandle should watch out.
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