EURO quite interesting with Kate.

[Stormsfury]

http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/EURO092903.html

Awfully close to Bermuda (east of) on Day 7.

SF

[vbhoutex]

Too bad the loop stops where it does.. I would think the incoming ridging to its' W will kick Kate back where she came from after that run SW.

[wxman57]

Kate's a fish. The track ends up still about 800 miles east of Bermuda. But by day 7, a deep trof is approaching from the west so Kate has nowhere to go but north.

[Stormsfury]

Kate's a fish. The track ends up still about 800 miles east of Bermuda. But by day 7, a deep trof is approaching from the west so Kate has nowhere to go but north.

Probably. But maybe Newfoundland may have to watch for an extratropical version of Kate in the future.

Best thing we have is the Day 10 3 day average.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

Anyway, really Kate's future is quite uncertain since the model guidance looks like a scorpion. (All over the place) ... The UKMET is quite laughable. The NOGAPS somewhat resembles the EURO in regards to Kate's track in the short term. The GFS looks like it swings a hard 180º while never stalling for a turn (IMO, Bunk). The Canadian sorta loses Kate (and is the only model showing anything substantial with a potential BOC/SW GOM system).

Honestly, I pretty much agree with you, wxman57 with Kate being not much fanfare. In fact, it may lose most of its identity once it stalls and moves back to the west.