What's Behind the U.S. Major Hurricane Drought?

[TheStormExpert]

As many know the current period of no major hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. for over 11 years is a long standing record. But what is really behind this seemingly never-ending hurricane-free streak?

Here is a local article from my local NBC news station explaining what could likely be the main cause for this streak. To sum it up it is mostly focusing on why Florida(South FL in particular) has been so lucky especially with Matthew being a dangerous Cat.4 hurricane only 50-60 miles offshore last October.

Honestly in my opinion I do not believe what they are saying is fully true and I do think there are other reasons as to why the U.S. has escaped major hurricane after major hurricane for almost 12 years now, and I'm sure many on here know what that might be as many have constantly stated over the past 5 years or so on S2K.

Towards the end it mentions Andrew and also how we may be approaching another period allowing for major hurricanes to strike the U.S.

http://www.wptv.com/weather/hurricane/study-invisible-protective-barrier-protected-florida-during-active-hurricane-seasons

[Hurricaneman]

The major hurricanes are coming but it's not a matter of if but a matter of when and where

[weathaguyry]

The major hurricanes are coming but it's not a matter of if but a matter of when and where

Agreed, there is a major difference between a well warned cat 3 into Key West in August as opposed to a cat 3 that smashes into NYC on Labor Day weekend that was supposed to go out to sea...

[TheStormExpert]

The major hurricanes are coming but it's not a matter of if but a matter of when and where

Yeah there is also a much more lengthy and detailed article that was posted back in January on The NY Times site that mentions how hurricanes are up to six times more likely to rapidly strengthen prior to landfall in the U.S. during the quiet period.

All in all I believe it is becoming more evident that the active era that began back in 1995 has ended and we are likely now in another quiet era which could mean worse if you want to see the major hurricane drought continue on.

http://nytimes.com/2017/01/04/science/hurricanes-us.html?_r=1&referer=

[TheStormExpert]

The major hurricanes are coming but it's not a matter of if but a matter of when and where

Agreed, there is a major difference between a well warned cat 3 into Key West in August as opposed to a cat 3 that smashes into NYC on Labor Day weekend that was supposed to go out to sea...

I think he meant we are likely to see a major hurricane strike sooner rather than later here in the U.S., the question is where and when. But I do get what you're saying though models these days should be advanced enough to warn people days in advance of an oncoming hurricane threat, if not then we have a lot of work to do with improving the models.

[Hammy]

Cuba got in the way in 2008--both Gustav and Ike, which were 110 at landfall, never recovered from the circulation disruption after crossing the island. Other than that, the Gulf has been less than favorable for quite some time, and the few stronger hurricanes that have formed in the Gulf went west into Mexico.

That said, most of the major hurricanes that have hit the US over the last 40 or so years have been lower-end Cat 3 hurricanes that were either weakening on the way to the coast, or formed too close to the coast to strengthen more--this includes most of the ones of 2004-05. For example, Charley in 2004 was the only Cat 4 to hit the US. So for the most part, it's a matter of a
5 mph difference that's led to the major hurricane drought, and some of the ones that were Cat 3's could've very well been slightly stronger (or vice versa) at the time of landfall. 2008 for instance, had Gustav and Ike hit the US just below major status, but were equally destructive along the coast.

And going back four decades (1976-2016), we've had a surprisingly small number of storms that have made landfall above 115mph:

1979-Frederic (120)
1989-Hugo (140)
1992-Andrew (165)
1999-Bret (120)
2004-Charley (150), Ivan (120), Jeanne (120)
2005-Dennis (120), Katrina (125)

So there may be more read into this than what's really there, unlike Florida's hurricane drought, which was quite sudden, though Texas had a similar occurrence between 1989 and 1999.

[Alyono]

the drought is due to the fact that Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy were classified as less than cat 3. In the old days, those would have all been cat 3s, and we would not have had a significant drought at all

It is an artifact of our ability to measure intensity these days

[Ptarmigan]

the drought is due to the fact that Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy were classified as less than cat 3. In the old days, those would have all been cat 3s, and we would not have had a significant drought at all

It is an artifact of our ability to measure intensity these days

That is what I was thinking too.

[wxman57]

the drought is due to the fact that Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy were classified as less than cat 3. In the old days, those would have all been cat 3s, and we would not have had a significant drought at all

It is an artifact of our ability to measure intensity these days

Even if Ike & Gustav were classified as Cat 3s, that would make it a 9-yr gap vs. 12, which is still unprecedented. Irene & Sandy weren't close to Cat 3.

[Alyono]

the drought is due to the fact that Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Sandy were classified as less than cat 3. In the old days, those would have all been cat 3s, and we would not have had a significant drought at all

It is an artifact of our ability to measure intensity these days

Even if Ike & Gustav were classified as Cat 3s, that would make it a 9-yr gap vs. 12, which is still unprecedented. Irene & Sandy weren't close to Cat 3.

pressure wise they were. They would have been 3s using the reanalysis techniques

[WeatherGuesser]

The only reason I would want to know WHY is if it would tell me whether or not the good trend will continue and for how long. We should all prefer that another one NEVER comes ashore. But we need to be prepared well enough in advance for those that do.

[tolakram]

I might have said this earlier but the drought of major hurricanes is a man made artifact. Why is the saffir simpson scale so important when judging how 'lucky' the US has been? Each one of the big 'non major' hurricanes that have come ashore has been detrimental to thousands of people, caused significant property loss, and had significant economic impact in the areas hit.

I think we all know that a small cat 4 coming ashore would likely cause less overall damage than a large cat 2. It's not a game where cat 3-5 somehow wins or indicates 'more normal' conditions. The difference between a cat 2 and a cat 3 is 1 MPH. This is why I see talk of a 'major drought' as nothing short of silly.

In my opinion, of course.

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ Should we all start singing Ronstadt's tune ..... 'Allll-i-SON' ?

[Nimbus]

If we had a hundred thousand years worth of recorded weather history we would probably see trends that we can't analyze with only a couple hundred years of accurate hurricane reporting.

Maybe we are in a longer term drought pattern, although we definitely had a little *luck* missing some potentially serious storms over the last decade.

[Patrick99]

I don't know that I believe the whole weaken-prior-to-landfall because of wind shear thing. At least when it comes to South Florida, pretty much every hurricane that hit in the last 2-3 decades has either intensified or at least maintained its strength coming in. Maybe as you get further north, certain continental influences (dry air, shear, what have you) make it more likely for the storms to weaken, but I just don't think you can say that for South Florida, on a line from about St. Lucie to Sarasota, on south.

South Florida also gets lucky in the sense that Cuba and Hispaniola tend to clean up many would-be majors for us. The storms need to come in on a very particular path.....and while this path seemed to be pretty common in the 1920s, 30s, 40s and 60s, for whatever reason storms don't seem to take that path much anymore.....just north of Cuba and Hispaniola, just south of the Bahamas.

[psyclone]

I think Alyono and Nimbus have hit the bullseye here. Previous canes were likely overestimated in terms of intensity and the frequency of big canes is rare enough that our sample size is insufficient to capture variability. In the 1940's we could have easily had a thread inquiring on the alarming uptick in big canes. That surge, along with the current drought may just be part of normal fluctuations.