TEMPS IN 50s TONIGHT FOR FLA. BIG BEND........

[dixiebreeze]

says Tampa NWS this afternoon! Autumn has arrived......

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
207 PM EDT Monday Sep 29 2003


Currently: 88d indicating some sort of Eddy off the southwest coast
this afternoon...helping to keep the heaviest rain concentrated
there. Cold front has slid through Tampa early this afternoon with
dew points having dropped into the middle 60s...but still in the middle
70s at Sarasota.


Short term (tngt through wed): main weather story over the next two
days will be the locally heavy rainfall and potential for flooding.
Synoptic scale pattern continues to look excellent for rain
production with surface convergence...upper level divergence...and
deep tropical moisture all in place along the front which is
expected to become quasi-stationary tonight. Exact location of
front will determine which counties receive the heaviest rain
through Wednesday...and we expect it to waffle around in the areas
currently under the Flood Watch.


The far north will be experiencing far different weather with a
polar air mass firmly in place. Dew points are currently in the 50s
in many places from Inverness northward...and should not rise much.
Overnight temperatures will dip into the 60s...with some 50s over Levy
County expected.


Extended (thu through mon): finally...gradual clearing on Thursday for
the rest of the forecast area as drier cooler air filters in behind
the weakening frontal boundary. Models appear to be converging a
little bit more so my confidence is a bit higher. Still going to
hold on to isolated/scattered probability of precipitation north to south because overall trend in
models has been to move boundary to the south too fast.


By Friday...dry air firmly in place with only the slightest chance
of showers across most areas...but probability is 10 percent or
less north of Charlotte County so won't mention precipitation there.


Saturday should be the driest of all the days as high pressure moves
across the southeast states...possibly even as far south as North
Florida. Overnight lows could drop to low to middle 50's northern
forecast area and middle 60's away from the coast in the south.


Sunday and Monday we will begin to moderate as high pressure moves
out into the Atlantic and airmass begins to modify. Should see min
temperatures 5 to 8 degrees higher than Saturday as dew points recover to
middle 60's north to near 70 south. With the return of low-level
moisture comes a greater chance of showers...albeit not much
greater. Will feature 20 probability of precipitation southern 2/3rds of forecast area and
continue with no probability of precipitation in the north.


Marine: winds will stay strong enough to support Small Craft Advisory over the
northern waters and scec over the southern waters through at least
Tuesday morning. In fact...winds and seas will stay up north of the
front through middle week.


Fire weather: it will be a close call over Levy County for red flag
criteria on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons...but for now have relative humidity
values above criteria and dispersions just below criteria. Dew points
should recover enough elsewhere to prevent relative humidity values from dropping
low enough to cause problems.


Preliminary numbers:
tpa 70/82/71/84 7756
fmy 73/85/73/85 7746
gif 70/82/71/84 5746
srq 71/82/72/84 8856
bkv 67/82/70/85 3645


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Flood Watch through Wednesday for: Pasco...Hillsborough...Polk...
Pinellas...Manatee...Hardee...Highlands...Sarasota...DeSoto...
Charlotte...and lee counties.
Small Craft Advisory Tarpon Springs to Suwannee river.
Small craft exercise caution today Englewood to Tarpon Springs.


Alsheimer/jillson

[TampaFl]

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. To cold for me.

Robert

[Deenac813]

Send a little of that down here will you?? It is HOT here and rainy

[dixiebreeze]

Wish I could share this nice cool, fall evening with you South Floridians. Except for the overcast and sprinkles now and then, a really nice autumn night.