JUAN #16 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 290824
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003

JUAN HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
010/35 AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. JUAN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 24-36 HOURS BY AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE 09Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IS DECREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON SURFACE
OBS AND THE OCCLUDED APPEARANCE NOTED IN HALIFAX RADAR ANIMATIONS.
THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST WEST OF
HALIFAX AT 29/03Z. THE HIGHEST WIND REPORT RECEIVED SO FAR WAS A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 MPH AT 1204 AM AST...WITH A GUST TO 89 MPH AT
1214 AM AST THIS MORNING...AT HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:

http://WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY AND FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED ON
JUAN SINCE THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 47.8N 63.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 29/1800Z 53.5N 61.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0600Z 61.1N 56.3W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW