KATE #15 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 290832
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003

A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST IS KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED
BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONSENSUS 3.5 CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL MAKE KATE A 55 KT
TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH FORECAST BY ALL BUT THE UKMET MODEL CAUSING A
DECELERATION OF KATE AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...REMAINING SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS DURING DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE THAT COULD ACTUALLY ALLOW
KATE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER MARGINAL SSTS...APPROXIMATELY 26
DEGREES CELSIUS...IN THAT PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER KATE
BY THAT TIME...IT IS NOT UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND IN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 27.7N 39.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 29.0N 38.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 30.1N 37.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 31.0N 37.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 31.3N 37.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 31.6N 39.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 32.5N 41.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 34.0N 44.0W 60 KT