JUAN #15 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 290231
TCDAT5
HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/28 AND THE MOTION FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES ACCELERATING JUAN NORTHWARD. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUICKLY ABSORBED BY THIS APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE 03Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70 KT. THE CENTER PASSED OVER
CANADIAN DATA BUOY 44142 BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. THE BUOY WIND WENT
FROM 090/54 KT AT 23Z TO 210/37 KT AT 00Z AND THE PRESSURE WENT
FROM 981 TO 975 MB. THE BOUY WIND SPEED BETWEEN THE TWO HOURS
COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED
40 FT WAVES. OVER VERY COLD WATER...JUAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN...BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY AROUND 03Z.

WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.
INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:

http://WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 45.8N 63.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 49.0N 63.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/0000Z 58.0N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/1200Z 65.0N 55.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW