000
WTNT41 KNHC 290222
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/15. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH CAUSING DECELERATION AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER BUT IT IS NOT
WELL ORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45/55/55 KT FROM
AFGWC/TAFB/SAB AND THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR 03Z REMAINS AT 50
KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING WITH
OVER 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS ALSO FOR LITTLE CHANGE. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE SHEAR VALUE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 26.7N 40.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 28.0N 39.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 29.3N 37.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 30.2N 36.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 31.0N 36.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 31.5N 38.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 39.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 33.0N 42.0W 45 KT
KATE #14 - DISCUSSION
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KATE #14 - DISCUSSION
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