Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[NDG]

One thing that I have noticed during the past few years is that whenever there's a stacked heat ridge over the Eastern US in both the mid levels and upper levels conditions over the western tropical Atlantic are not the best with ULLs and TUTTs very persistent than not. It took a trough over the MS & OH valley to change the conditions over the western Basin. I agree that the western or central Caribbean still have a chance to product another named system before a strong cold front moves through that area which looks not to happen over the next couple of weeks.

[NWFL56]

One thing that I have noticed during the past few years is that whenever there's a stacked heat ridge over the Eastern US in both the mid levels and upper levels conditions over the western tropical Atlantic are not the best with ULLs and TUTTs very persistent than not. It took a trough over the MS & OH valley to change the conditions over the western Basin. I agree that the western or central Caribbean still have a chance to product another named system before a strong cold front moves through that area which looks not to happen over the next couple of weeks.

Daughter's NW Florida beach wedding on the 22nd. Would sure like to be between storms. I have my eyes on the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

[Andrew92]

From a meteorological and technical perspective it was a pretty good season to follow the Atlantic. From a humanitarian perspective 2016 was devastating and was unfortunate, I would have hoped for a dud season. The year after a Nino statistic (looking at you Andrew92!) was on the money once again. Very possible it could muster another threat before all said and done, place to look late season would be WCarib.

And it's not really a one storm season either that carried most of the weight, ACE wise there was two in Gaston and Matthew.

Truth be told, I wasn't really sure this was a full La Nina, with that warm EPAC MDR, and as such that this would count as a genuine first year after an El Nino. For much of this hurricane season, through the peak, it did act that way. Storms were, simply put, struggling in the tropical latitudes in the Atlantic, for the most part having better luck further north. Gaston was a textbook example of the kind of storm I had in mind.

But Matthew has forced me to change my perspective on 2016 as a whole now. 1998 may indeed have been the best analog to look at. I have even noticed in recent days that, just like 1998, the EPAC has really quieted down. Georges was the first major south of 20 degrees that year, and didn't take shape until the second half of September, just like Matthew this year.

Throw in two more similar analogs from this standpoint: 1954 and 1966. I personally take 1954 with a grain of salt, even after re-analysis, because I wonder if it's possible a major hurricane far out at sea occurred that never went detected (no fault of HURDAT when I say this). As it stands though, Hazel was the only major in the tropical Atlantic, doing so in October. But 1966 was similar in some ways too. The Atlantic storms struggled mightily in the tropical latitudes for a while except for Faith. Inez finally became a major south of 20 degrees on September 30. I think in 1966 there was a long warm pool in the MDR latitudes, but more central-based and still cool in the EPAC, but I might need to take a second look.

I'm a bit unsure that there will be a second storm like Matthew later in October, but I am definitely not ruling it out. Indeed, a major hurricane south of 20 degrees is the typical hallmark in the year after a traditional El Nino, such as last year. And with Earl as a surprise Caribbean hurricane in August, maybe 1959 was not the greatest analog ever, versus 1998.

-Andrew92

[chaser1]

Well, if 1998 bears out to be a more appropriate analogue, then "this dog's" gotta bit more fight in it. The 20th-30th might prove to be a little busy. Not to mention that the name "Otto" just gives me the "willies". Seems like one of those old throwback seasons with all the 'ol classic names. Could just be our 1998-like, 2nd late season major.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Matthew put a bit of a dent in the SSTs across the Central Caribbean and Bahamas but above normal still across the Western Caribbean and Gulf:

[abajan]

Looks like Matthew put a bit of a dent in the SSTs across the Central Caribbean and Bahamas but above normal still across the Western Caribbean and Gulf:

https://s17.postimg.org/a2usxjnmn/anoma_10_10_2016.gif

But the normal temperature where Matthew traversed is so warm that even a couple degrees below it is ample to support cyclogenesis.

[Ntxw]

With Matthew and Nicole exiting the picture the wavebreak by these systems will quiet the Atlantic for awhile. If there is an end game storm the best place to watch in a few weeks would be the western Carib in what will have been a very active season. Currently in terms of rank (ACE) the 2016 season is sandwiched between 1967 and 1958. The next season to pass would be 2011

[SFLcane]

Um yea season over or very close...odds of any impact on US are remote now.

[WPBWeather]

Um yea season over or very close...odds of any impact on US are remote now.

Probably not, but its a nice thought anyway.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Um yea season over or very close...odds of any impact on US are remote now.

Seeing that was like a jump scare. Holy cow!

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the season may be over in the deep tropics but wouldn't be surprised if some subtropical mess might form in the subtropical areas in November

ps I will be starting the 2017 version of this thread as soon as the CSU do their preliminary forecast in December

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/794532630435864576