JUAN #14 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 282029
TCDAT5
HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003

THE SYSTEM'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT
WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE STILL APPARENT. LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH. JUAN IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN FEELING THE EFFECT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS
VERY SOON. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...THERE
WILL WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THUS THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE FAST FORWARD SPEED WILL SHOULD LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4 INCHES...100 MM. SINCE LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...STORM
SURGE FLOODING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.

WIND AND RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:

http://WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML

JUAN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH WITH CURRENT MOTION AROUND
360/20. THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING REMAIN
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SWEPT
NORTHWARD BY THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 41.2N 64.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 46.0N 64.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 53.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE