Another Opal in the making??????

[Dean4Storms]

Several models are now drifting our Carib. disturbance across the Yucatan and developing it in the BOC as the CONUS trough misses it and swings by to the north late in the weekend. Being left behind in the BOC and forming on the SW periphery of this diving ridge, it could be another Opal type TC forming rapidly and eventually moving northward toward the upper Gulf coast as it gets picked up by the next shortwave trough .

I see an ominous possibility here!

[wxman57]

I'd say that scenario looks pretty unlikely at this time. There will be some pretty cool air flowing out across the Gulf by next Thursday/Friday. The models are just indicating a region of lower pressure in the southern Gulf, BOC. It's something to watch for possible development, but there are no signs of another Opal developing.

[GulfBreezer]

Don't even say that word O__L!! Bad Bad Word!!

[Stormcenter]

What Another Opal?!?!?!?

I hope not.

[Dean4Storms]

I'd say that scenario looks pretty unlikely at this time. There will be some pretty cool air flowing out across the Gulf by next Thursday/Friday. The models are just indicating a region of lower pressure in the southern Gulf, BOC. It's something to watch for possible development, but there are no signs of another Opal developing.

Huh? I'll give you one model for instance and the ETA is also indicating this. I know it's a slim possibility and alot could change. But the current weather pattern with a disturbance in the NW Carib. is exactly as it was just before Opal. Opal developed at the base of a CONUS trough after moving as a disturbance from the NW Carib. across the Yucatan and into the BOC. The next trough that came swinging through picked her up and ushered in cooler air behind her as she raced up into Canada.


CMC...........
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

[ameriwx2003]

Dean, yes something to be watched but the CMC yesterday had a tropical system coming out of the Caribbean and striking the West Coast of Florida and today it has the into the BOC solution:):). I am not going to hang my hat on any one model run myself.. It will be interesting to watch that area though the next several days.:):)

[Dean4Storms]

Ameri......I wholeheartedly agree. Not hanging my hat on it either being that the thinning spot on top might just glow. LOL!!

[Josephine96]

This is the time of year for West Coast of Florida potential... the "sling shot effect" as I like to call it... When a cold front swoops down and slings the system into Florida..

It would be our 3rd named storm this year..

1. pre "erika" 2. Henri.. and 3.. Juan/Kate..?

[WeatherEmperor]

West Florida needs to watch this. Cause if another Opal will be in the making they could be in trouble.

[Derecho]

In the seven years or so I've seen repeated attempts at storm comparison early in a storm (and by early I usually mean as a TD, much less an INVEST, or in the case of the Western Carribean, a proto-proto-INVEST; it's not even to the point where it's even ALMOST an INVEST) EVERY single comparison has resulted in a storm that ends up not bearing the slightest resemblance to the storm it's compared to.

Fabian ended up nothing like the storms it was compared to when it was a TD or TS, and the same goes with Isabel.

Of course, most of these comparisons are to Andrew and Floyd.

Given that about 99% of early-storm comparisons are to Florida hits, some sort of jinx related to comparing systems to Florida hits may be the cause of the infamous Florida tropical hit protective bubble we've seen the last few years

The fundamental flaw, of course, is that only famous/powerful storms are used for comparison purposes, and that's why comparisons are pretty much completely uninformative.

Also, the degree to which "models" have been doing anything with the West Carib has been greatly exaggerated somehow. As of now (before the 12Z runs) there's exactly ONE model developing an actual system, the Canadian, and of course this run is a slow BOC stall forever. Even going way back to 0Z two nights ago there were never more than TWO models.

[Dean4Storms]

Just saying there is a possibility Derecho, although even a very slim one at this point. This is a tropics board and I was just pointing out a model run depicting a TC evolving in the BOC and how if it occured it would be eerily similiar to Opal (time of year, patterns, e.t.c...). BTW, the GFS is also showing a feature, although not as developed, in the BOC at the end of it's run as well. Take it easy, relax and enjoy the board!

[Dean4Storms]

In the seven years or so I've seen repeated attempts at storm comparison early in a storm (and by early I usually mean as a TD, much less an INVEST, or in the case of the Western Carribean, a proto-proto-INVEST; it's not even to the point where it's even ALMOST an INVEST) EVERY single comparison has resulted in a storm that ends up not bearing the slightest resemblance to the storm it's compared to.

Fabian ended up nothing like the storms it was compared to when it was a TD or TS, and the same goes with Isabel.

Of course, most of these comparisons are to Andrew and Floyd.

Given that about 99% of early-storm comparisons are to Florida hits, some sort of jinx related to comparing systems to Florida hits may be the cause of the infamous Florida tropical hit protective bubble we've seen the last few years

The fundamental flaw, of course, is that only famous/powerful storms are used for comparison purposes, and that's why comparisons are pretty much completely uninformative.

Also, the degree to which "models" have been doing anything with the West Carib has been greatly exaggerated somehow. As of now (before the 12Z runs) there's exactly ONE model developing an actual system, the Canadian, and of course this run is a slow BOC stall forever. Even going way back to 0Z two nights ago there were never more than TWO models.

I guess the exaggeration continues?

[lilbump3000]

Opal knew she got her act together quick, and it was round this time of the year also, could this be her brother following her trials, finishing what she had not complete, we will see.

[wxman57]

Possibly more like Roxanne than Opal:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Remember I talked about cool air entrainment earlier in this thread. There's some very cool and dry air coming down into the Gulf by late Wednesday. This air should accelerate south down the Mexican coast into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Anything still down there may entrain the air and die out, as Roxanne did. It doesn't look like the ridge to the north will break down until maybe Friday, so I'm thinking more of a Roxanne-type storm than Opal.

[Rainband]

Possibly more like Roxanne than Opal:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Remember I talked about cool air entrainment earlier in this thread. There's some very cool and dry air coming down into the Gulf by late Wednesday. This air should accelerate south down the Mexican coast into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Anything still down there may entrain the air and die out, as Roxanne did. It doesn't look like the ridge to the north will break down until maybe Friday, so I'm thinking more of a Roxanne-type storm than Opal.

So then we have nothing to worry about is basically what your saying?

[lilbump3000]

All i have to say is we dont know if its going to be an Opal, or Roxanne, so all i have to say is we just going to have to wait and see.

[ColdFront77]

I agree with you lilbump. This system isn't even a tropical depression yet and this is September, going into October.

[wxman57]

Possibly more like Roxanne than Opal:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Remember I talked about cool air entrainment earlier in this thread. There's some very cool and dry air coming down into the Gulf by late Wednesday. This air should accelerate south down the Mexican coast into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Anything still down there may entrain the air and die out, as Roxanne did. It doesn't look like the ridge to the north will break down until maybe Friday, so I'm thinking more of a Roxanne-type storm than Opal.

So then we have nothing to worry about is basically what your saying?

Well, I wouldn't say you have NOTHING to worry about.

[Rainband]

Possibly more like Roxanne than Opal:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Remember I talked about cool air entrainment earlier in this thread. There's some very cool and dry air coming down into the Gulf by late Wednesday. This air should accelerate south down the Mexican coast into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Anything still down there may entrain the air and die out, as Roxanne did. It doesn't look like the ridge to the north will break down until maybe Friday, so I'm thinking more of a Roxanne-type storm than Opal.

So then we have nothing to worry about is basically what your saying?

Well, I wouldn't say you have NOTHING to worry about.

I mean in regards to this system

[ColdFront77]

Jonathan, this is the system at hand.