LLC in southern Bay of Campeche 19.7/95.9

[rockyman]

Looking at the latest visible loops, a well-defined rotation is noted in the low clouds over the southern BOC...near the Mexican coast, around 19.7/95.9...this area is not under quite as much shear as the area to the north where the "big" convection is located...plus...we're heading into October and this is the tail end of a front boundary...which are climatological plusses this time of year. Any thoughts?

[WeatherEmperor]

Too much shear.

[rockyman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Shows that shear decreases dramatically toward the extreme southern BOC...The LLC is under about 20kts of shear...which is definitely a major limiting factor...but no so much as further north in the BOC.

[wxman57]

Those kind of eddies are very common when cool air hits the Texas coast then rushes straight south down the coast of Mexico. You can see the progress of the cold front as it moved south of Tampico:

MMTM| |281548|80.0F|73.0F|78.8%|360|016|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MMTM| |281445|78.0F|71.0F|78.7%|030|014|000|29.93|999|OVC|Haze
MMTM| |280448|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|330|010|000|29.88|999|OVC|
MMTM| |280247|77.0F|75.0F|94.2%|360|012|000|29.86|999|OVC|
MMTM| |280041|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|020|000|29.84|999|OVC|Light Rain
MMTM| |272345|84.0F|75.0F|74.5%|030|012|000|29.78|999|BKN|
MMTM| |272243|86.0F|77.0F|74.7%|040|016|000|29.77|999|BKN|
MMTM| |272053|89.0F|75.0F|62.8%|070|010|000|29.75|999|BKN|
MMTM| |271943|87.0F|75.0F|66.5%|160|004|000|29.78|999|BKN|

The front hit Tampico late yesterday afternoon and the northerly winds have been blowing a 15-20 kts ever since. Since the wind is accelerating south down the coast of Mexico just west of air that is moving much more slowly, a natural eddy forms. Such eddies can develop convection and turn into tropical systems once the cool air infiltration ends and it's left there in the BOC.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree Wxman....... The models have benn fairly consistant in showing this effect in the BOC with the tail end of this front. If the convection persists through the week we may have a player here.