TheStormExpert wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I'm thinking maybe this weekend from the low off the east coast that is expected?
That's going to be a Nor'easter.
Never know it could briefly turn subtropical, though I doubt it.
When will we see Danny?
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: Re:
Never know it could briefly turn subtropical, though I doubt it.
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HurricaneRyan
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Re:
HurricaneRyan wrote:August 21st.
I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.
Unfortunately it may take rains like that to end the drought like it did in Texas earlier in the year.
As for Danny, I'm thinking September 1 at this point, given the absolute lack of anything in the models now, and the GFS keeps pushing everything back to beyond 300 hours.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This year is following very much like 1997, activity early on and nothing in August until Erika. My guess would be Sept 1-5 for Danny, its hard going peak season with no storm. Seasonal subtropical jet/polar jet moving further south in October with strong Nino analogs is favoring season ending shear, however not a guaranty just what has happened in the past strictly on Enso strength.
Not a forecast, just opinion.
Not a forecast, just opinion.
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ninel conde
Re:
HurricaneRyan wrote:August 21st.
I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.
im rather confident the rain will be sparse for california. same old pattern for years now whether its el nino, la nina or el neutral.
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ninel conde
Re: Re:
ninel conde wrote:HurricaneRyan wrote:August 21st.
I'm more concerned about the El Nino's affects in California this year than the hurricane season. 1997 was the last time we had major rain and flooding so if it happens again...oh boy.
im rather confident the rain will be sparse for california. same old pattern for years now whether its el nino, la nina or el neutral.
You are already busting on your forecast when parts of California already has seen record rainfall (relatively speaking) this summer due to the current El Nino.
Long term forecasts including the trusty ECMWF show the blocking pattern in the NE Pacific to collapse as we get into late fall and into the winter.
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HurricaneRyan
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Re: Re:
LarryWx wrote: Anyway, my WAG for the fun of it is for Danny to form on 8/17.
It looks like I was the closest since I was one day off with my 8/17 WAG. What do I win, an all expenses paid vacation to all places where Danny landfalls in the Caribbean?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.