Wave in Eastern Atlantic - Is now ATLC Invest 96L

[Siker]

12z UKMET is stronger. The models look to be in general agreement on some type of development. Let's see if it continues.

What website do people get the UKMET plots from?

[Hammy]

12z UKMET is stronger. The models look to be in general agreement on some type of development. Let's see if it continues.

What website do people get the UKMET plots from?

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Siker]

12z UKMET is stronger. The models look to be in general agreement on some type of development. Let's see if it continues.

What website do people get the UKMET plots from?

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Sweet, thanks.

[AJC3]

Here is how the ECMWF run ends at 240 hours. Looking at the 500MB height forecast from the model (second image), there is a lot or ridging building in over the Western Atlantic and Eastern North America allowing the low to move W or WNW even if it were to deepen and develop into something more significant. The question is - would there be more favorable conditions downstream further west (say if it got into the area just north of the Leeward islands / Puerto Rico / Hispaniola)?

One thing you can do to help answer your own question, at least in terms of upper tropospheric winds/shear, is post the 250MB progs from the same time frame.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[gatorcane]

Here is how the ECMWF run ends at 240 hours. Looking at the 500MB height forecast from the model (second image), there is a lot or ridging building in over the Western Atlantic and Eastern North America allowing the low to move W or WNW even if it were to deepen and develop into something more significant. The question is - would there be more favorable conditions downstream further west (say if it got into the area just north of the Leeward islands / Puerto Rico / Hispaniola)?

http://i.imgur.com/mxveKMl.gif

http://i.imgur.com/fAK7lLU.png

One thing you can do to help answer your own question, at least in terms of upper tropospheric winds/shear, is post the 250MB progs from the same time frame.

Yeah that is true, thanks for pointing that out.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 17N22W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE AND MAXIMUM IN
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY

[AJC3]

This thread is being locked as the disturbance is now ATLC Invest 96L. Feel free to discuss it over at either of these to threads.

Discussion thread:
http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117434

Models thread
http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117435