PBS NOVA Documentary on Typhoon Haiyan broadcast Wedsneday

[beoumont]

Fairly good presentation. Many short "home" video clips of massive surge and strongest wind gusts seen so far. Certainly better footage than the earlier storm chaser clips from one protected hotel perch; although those were pretty intense as well, albeit capturing only a limited field of view.

One clip shows whole large palm tree snapped just above the surface and smashed to the ground.

Kerry Emanual from MIT detailed how perfect the conditions were for long term intensification and a several day maintainence of those maximum conditions.
Asked about the warming earth he didn't blame this one storm on such, but was quite clear that 97% of climatologists agree on the recently warming oceans worldwide; marginalizing the few doubters as the extreme minority they are (corporate apologists - he did not make that conclusion). Noted the 8 inch rise in oceans heights past two decades; accentuated in the SW Pacific Rim area.

One repeated theme was that most of the Philippine people about to get rammed were not expecting or thinking about the potential tidal surge coming; which is surprising considering how many typhoons they experience, and how forecastable this storm's path was from many days out.

The program repeats itself several times during the next few days on many local PBS stations; and will be available on ITunes in the near future.

[tolakram]

Fairly good presentation. Many short "home" video clips of massive surge and strongest wind gusts seen so far. Certainly better footage than the earlier storm chaser clips from one protected hotel perch; although those were pretty intense as well, albeit capturing only a limited field of view.

One clip shows whole large palm tree snapped just above the surface and smashed to the ground.

Kerry Emanual from MIT detailed how perfect the conditions were for long term intensification and a several day maintainence of those maximum conditions.
Asked about the warming earth he didn't blame this one storm on such, but was quite clear that 97% of climatologists agree on the recently warming oceans worldwide; marginalizing the few doubters as the extreme minority they are (corporate apologists - he did not make that conclusion). Noted the 8 inch rise in oceans heights past two decades; accentuated in the SW Pacific Rim area.

One repeated theme was that most of the Philippine people about to get rammed were not expecting or thinking about the potential tidal surge coming; which is surprising considering how many typhoons they experience, and how forecastable this storm's path was from many days out.

The program repeats itself several times during the next few days on many local PBS stations; and will be available on ITunes in the near future.

8 inch rise in ocean heights in the past two decades? Since 1870 there has been an 8 inch rise based on tidal gauge measurements (wikipedia source), but I can't find a rather dramatic 8 inch rise in the last 2 decades (20 years). Did this information come from the show?

Increase of 8 inches in the last century is more accurate, at least according to this source: https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/04/13-2

[RL3AO]

I didn't watch but saw on twitter about how they were linking it to climate change. It would make more sense to link the significant decrease in global tropical activity the past 7 or so years (which would also be wrong to do) to climate change then one strong storm.

[beoumont]

8 inch rise in ocean heights in the past two decades? Since 1870 there has been an 8 inch rise based on tidal gauge measurements (wikipedia source), but I can't find a rather dramatic 8 inch rise in the last 2 decades (20 years). Did this information come from the show?

Increase of 8 inches in the last century is more accurate, at least according to this source: https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/04/13-2

I taped the show, and you might be basically correct. What I see now in looking back, what Kerry Emanual of MIT said was, "There are certain areas of the earth where the sea level rises are greater than others. One of these is the Philippine area where the rise has been a little over 8 inches in the past 30 years."

RL3AO, I didn't watch but saw on twitter about how they were linking it to climate change. It would make more sense to link the significant decrease in global tropical activity the past 7 or so years (which would also be wrong to do) to climate change then one strong storm.

The NOVA presenters in the Killer Typhoon show did not say Haiyan, nor any other single weather event, was a direct result of climate change. What one presenter did say was that it is possible that some storms are probably getting more intense because they are moving over warmer waters than they would have in years past when the ocean was cooler in the same locale. He added that he didn't think the number of developments can be linked to climate change from the data available. It was pointed out that a long stretch of ocean that Haiyan passed over had 86 degree ocean temperatures through a 300 foot deep layer of surface waters. (The upper oceanic heat content was very favorable for intensification.)

[tolakram]

I taped the show, and you might be basically correct. What I see now in looking back, what Kerry Emanual of MIT said was, "There are certain areas of the earth where the sea level rises are greater than others. One of these is the Philippine area where the rise has been a little over 8 inches in the past 30 years."

I found backup for that claim. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115589/philippines-rising-sea-levels-makes-them-more-vulnerable-typhoons

Global sea levels are currently rising at a rate of 3.2 millimeters per year, double the average rate during the 20th century. In the Philippines, sea levels are rising at four times the global rate at 12 millimetres per year.


It's almost as if someone is pushing the pacific water to the west. Very interesting how it would rise more on the western side of the pacific while dropping, slightly, on the east side.

[euro6208]

I taped the show, and you might be basically correct. What I see now in looking back, what Kerry Emanual of MIT said was, "There are certain areas of the earth where the sea level rises are greater than others. One of these is the Philippine area where the rise has been a little over 8 inches in the past 30 years."

I found backup for that claim. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115589/philippines-rising-sea-levels-makes-them-more-vulnerable-typhoons

Global sea levels are currently rising at a rate of 3.2 millimeters per year, double the average rate during the 20th century. In the Philippines, sea levels are rising at four times the global rate at 12 millimetres per year.


It's almost as if someone is pushing the pacific water to the west. Very interesting how it would rise more on the western side of the pacific while dropping, slightly, on the east side.

Read somewhere that trade winds might be responsible for increased sea levels east of the philippines. These waters are also the warmest globally.

[Alyono]

higher sea levels near the Philippines would make sense given the increased frequency of la niña during the past 20 years. . Stronger easterly trade winds push the waters farther west, creating cooler waters in the EPAC

[brunota2003]

They hardly ever deal with surge out there, this storm just happened to come in at the right angle and location. From what some people were saying, they don't even have a word for storm surge in their language...the sea rising and overtaking everything ("like a tsunami"), was literally the last thing on most of their minds.

[beoumont]

They hardly ever deal with surge out there, this storm just happened to come in at the right angle and location. From what some people were saying, they don't even have a word for storm surge in their language...the sea rising and overtaking everything ("like a tsunami"), was literally the last thing on most of their minds.

One thing that came through repeatedly in the show (and it may or may not be the philosophy of most of the people) is that they are, in general, basically resigned to a life of hardship and pain. Kind of like those other eastern societies that are mostly Buddhist; which in some ways is dominant in societies that quite often have to deal with poverty and hardship. 90% of people in the Philippines, according to my quick research, are Christian, though.

Another point in the show: there was not an apparent rush to grocery stores to stock up on food and supplies; like you always see here in the US when a big hurricane is coming. Long lines at grocery stores, where shelves quickly become bare. Whether or not a huge surge was "expected" by the populace, it was obvious for days that a storm of extreme wind strength was going to strike a substantial stretch of the Philippines. Do most of the people simply not have enough money to stock up even with the worst of pending disasters; or is there little effort by government entities and media to warn the public? Apathy just seems like an odd explanation, since they have so many typhoons there. (The kind of apathy that developed in S. Florida from 1965 to 1992, between hurricanes; and only about 10% of the people boarded up their homes in advance of Andrew).

One of the professors interviewed did mention that certain populations have no choice but to live along the low lying coastal plains; as it is the only area where there is any means of even meager income. This is why tens and even hundreds of thousands of people have died along the Indian Ocean, when their cyclones inundate the vast coastal rice paddies where large segments of the population live (and sadly, die by drowning).

[brunota2003]

I think part of it is warnings getting to people, along with lack of education and meager incomes. They had people showing up to work, just hours before landfall, because the people couldn't afford to miss a day of work...Winds of that magnitude happen so infrequently, that I don't think even the experts truly knew what would happen (we can sit here and compare and make claims, but when was the last time something like that made landfall? Even Andrew was weaker).

Without a lot of money, the populace doesn't have the time or, really, the equipment for proper education on typhoons. Typhoonfury commented, the day before landfall, that the villages along the low lying coastline (south of Tacloban City) did not appear to be evacuating, it was almost business as usual.

[mrbagyo]

They hardly ever deal with surge out there, this storm just happened to come in at the right angle and location. From what some people were saying, they don't even have a word for storm surge in their language...the sea rising and overtaking everything ("like a tsunami"), was literally the last thing on most of their minds.

Philippines had experienced quite a number of deadly storm surge in the past, it's just that the memory of my fellow citizens and the local media are very short, and I think there are numerous storm surge event in the past that was not recorded nor reported because it didn't happen in a major city.

Another point in the show: there was not an apparent rush to grocery stores to stock up on food and supplies; like you always see here in the US when a big hurricane is coming. Long lines at grocery stores, where shelves quickly become bare. Whether or not a huge surge was "expected" by the populace, it was obvious for days that a storm of extreme wind strength was going to strike a substantial stretch of the Philippines. Do most of the people simply not have enough money to stock up even with the worst of pending disasters; or is there little effort by government entities and media to warn the public? Apathy just seems like an odd explanation, since they have so many typhoons there. (The kind of apathy that developed in S. Florida from 1965 to 1992, between hurricanes; and only about 10% of the people boarded up their homes in advance of Andrew).

the truth is, people here are so used to intense tropical cyclones that they are just doing the same preparation regardless of the intensity of a storm ( tropical storm or typhoon), sometimes no preparation at all. For most Filipinos a typhoon is like the past typhoons, just the same. it's like a "been there, done that" scenario whenever a storm is coming, and that's a big problem.

Typhoonfury commented, the day before landfall, that the villages along the low lying coastline (south of Tacloban City) did not appear to be evacuating, it was almost business as usual.

that's very true here in almost any part of the country.

[beoumont]

The entire 52 minute NOVA program "Killer Typhoon" can be seen online at the following URL (which I believe is an Itunes formated video:

http://video.pbs.org/video/2365160389/

[Ptarmigan]

The storm surge from Haiyan looked more like a tsunami. Too many people lost their life.