Area of Interest Expected to Form in Eastern Pacific

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hurricanes1234
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Area of Interest Expected to Form in Eastern Pacific

#1 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 11:46 am

This thread is for the area of disturbed weather expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. What are the models saying in terms of intensity? A tropical storm? A hurricane? If so, what category?

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A FEW OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

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#2 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 01, 2013 1:48 pm

GFS develops a Depression on September 9th but strengthens a little before weakening.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _epac.html
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#3 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 2:17 pm

So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak? :roll:
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re:

#4 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 01, 2013 2:31 pm

galaxy401 wrote:So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak? :roll:


Maybe, but it was quite far out. (+192 hours). So we'll just have to see.
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Re: Area of Interest Expected to Form in Eastern Pacific

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:06 pm

I really don't think this would surpass Category 1 strength. How favourable are the conditions in its path?

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Re:

#6 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:51 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:GFS develops a Depression on September 9th but strengthens a little before weakening.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _epac.html

That was my first thought before clicking on the thread title, this will be a weak or moderate TS that amounts of nothing.

galaxy401 wrote:So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak? :roll:

Did you expect anything different?
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Re: Re:

#7 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:38 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:So this looks to be another EPAC system that will just be weak? :roll:

Did you expect anything different?


Not until I looked at the models.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: Area of Interest Expected to Form in Eastern Pacific

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:26 pm

18z GFS weak

Image
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Re: Re:

#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:45 pm

That was my first thought before clicking on the thread title, this will be a weak or moderate TS that amounts of nothing.


I agree with this statement. If the MJO is in a favourable state, then what's going on?

Did you expect anything different?


Actually, at this point, I would expect that the conditions would be in place. This year must be different... :hmm:

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#10 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 02, 2013 12:51 pm

Invest 99E is here.
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Re: Area of Interest Expected to Form in Eastern Pacific

#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:11 pm

Could someone please lock this thread? Thanks. :lol:
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#12 Postby weathernerdguy » Thu Sep 05, 2013 5:48 pm

its peak would be 990 mb
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