Question for the experts

[Rainband]

If..and I mean IF Isabel were to hit florida as a cat 3-4 cane what would the West coast of Florida experience..I know erin in 95 came across and it weakened. This will be a much stronger storm...what can we expect..IF this were to happen. I realize there are alot of variables but any input would be appreciated. I am not sold yet on the florida landfall. I think the whole east coast needs to watch and wait. But as for my question..I ask for obvious reasons..I live here :o Thanks in advance

[Steve]

Not that I even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night (much less am I an expert), but there's no way to tell from this point what a specific location in Western Florida might see. You have to consider various factors and assumptions including intensity, track, does it cross the Peninsula or head north et al. Having said that, Isabel does pack a punch to its west and south more typical of Pacific storms, so any movement inland of 50 miles or so would put FL's west coast at least in the Gale/TS category if not stronger. I'd be more leery of potential storm-spawned tornados, but that's just me.

Steve

[Rainband]

Not that I even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night (much less am I an expert), but there's no way to tell from this point what a specific location in Western Florida might see. You have to consider various factors and assumptions including intensity, track, does it cross the Peninsula or head north et al. Having said that, Isabel does pack a punch to its west and south more typical of Pacific storms, so any movement inland of 50 miles or so would put FL's west coast at least in the Gale/TS category if not stronger. I'd be more leery of potential storm-spawned tornados, but that's just me.

Steve

Thanks steve just curious. Like I said I am not sold on a Florida landfall.. Everyone from the east coast to the GOM needs to watch Isabel.. :o

[Josephine96]

Well, I once heard Dr. Bob Sheets say that for every 50 miles of land, a hurricane drops 1 category.. So If it came onshore Central Florida or even South Florida it would probably be one category worse than what it was when it made landfall.

If the storm is big enough, there's even the possibility of the West coast seeing the same things the east coast sees because of the storms' size and because of the bands out ahead of it..

[JetMaxx]

We can use past major Florida hurricanes as a guide...

The 1926 "Great Miami" hurricane was a cat-4....935 mb and 145-150 mph at landfall.
When it moved over Fort Myers and Sanibel Island, winds were still estimated at 125-130 mph...still a very dangerous hurricane that later devastated Pensacola and Mobile with 125 mph winds.

In 1928, the monsterous "San Felipe" hurricane plowed into Palm Beach county with 150-155 mph winds and a central pressure of 929 mb. It recurved through the state, never reaching the GOM...but was still a major hurricane as far north as the Orlando area -- and a cat-2 in the Jacksonville and Fernandina Beach areas (100-110 mph with gusts over 125).

The large and intense 1947 hurricane crossed Florida from Broward/Palm Beach counties to Naples then into the GOM.....at landfall it was at 940 mb and 135 mph. As it exited the SW Coast, winds had decreased to an estimated sustained 110 mph...but it was a very slow moving hurricane and took 18 hours to cross the peninsula. Even though weakened, considerable damage occurred along the west coast from Venice southward to the Everglades.

Hurricane Donna in 1960 recurved over the state of Florida....crossing the middle Keys as a monster....930 mb and 140-145 mph. By the time it had reached Naples, winds were 135 mph or so; and 120-125 in the Fort Myers/ Port Charlotte area. Donna still packed a punch as she crossed the Peninsula from Punta Gorda to Lakeland to Marineland....winds in many areas gusting over 100 mph (including the western burbs of Orlando...97 mph at Clermont; 90-100 mph at Lakeland and Winter Garden). Wind gusts at Sarasota and Bradenton reached 100-105 mph and 80-90 over Tampa/ St Pete (on the weak side of the hurricane). Donna also produced 100+ mph winds at Marinelane and 90-100 at Daytona Beach.

In 1992, Andrew weakened from 160-165 mph to 125-130 mph in only 4 hours while crossing the Everglades...but a small core hurricane will weaken faster than large hurricanes will, and Andrew's eyewall was tiny.

IF...and I stress IF hurricane Isabel slams into the SE Coast near Miami/ Ft Lauderdale and tracks toward Tampa Bay, I expect wind gusts of at least 100 mph in the Tampa Bay area....and possibly stronger (depending on how intense and large Isabel is at landfall).

A major hurricane striking Florida's coast won't just die moving inland or recurving over the state.
Even cat-3's such as the 1945 hurricane and King maintained strong winds well into central Florida...King producing a 72 mph SUSTAINED wind with gusts over 80 mph in Jacksonville in 1950....why EVERYONE living in the Sunshine State needs to take Isabel seriously, and take appropriate precautions to protect life and property in the event a direct hit occurs.

[JtSmarts]

Very interesting but scary info. :o

[Rainband]

Thanks Perry and John I think :o At any rate she could still turn out to sea and not bother anyone... I can dream can't I...

[CocoaBill]

The latest adivisory states that Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 185 MILES from the center. West Florida will feel alot if it come ashore on the EC of FL.

[Derek Ortt]

You should expect on the WC 2 categories less than what the ECexperienced, and even then, the strongest winds would likely be confined to offshore waters