Western GOM

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tailgater
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Western GOM

#1 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 10, 2013 8:57 am

I guess this deserves a thread
Image

As the NHC says it has a small window and a small chance but we have seen systems in this region of the basin spin up quickly.
Doesn't look like any organization on radar.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/altamira/altamira.php
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#2 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Aug 10, 2013 9:39 am

At least its giving a shot of Rain to my area today and Sunday! :D

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Re: Western GOM 10%

#3 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Aug 10, 2013 12:50 pm

Is the ULL pushing this moisture westward?
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Re: Western GOM 10%

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 10, 2013 12:53 pm

2 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO
ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
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Re: Western GOM 0%

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:40 pm

8 PM EDT down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER EASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: Western GOM 0%

#6 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 10, 2013 6:55 pm

I think we will probably see a pretty good flare up tonite or tomorrow morning in the BOC as what left of the trough will be the SE side (WET) of the UUL moving quickly to the west.
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