URGENT: HAS THE WEST TURN BEGUN?

[rob8303]

I've read on other sites that for something like 47 frames now this thing has been moving due west, it is has a squashed appearance and the eye is opening more to the west. Is any of this true? I doubt it because if it is, I have loads of crow to eat.

[dixiebreeze]

Rob, it does look like she's trying to pull westerly in this image:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Renata]

Not that I can see. It is still travelling about 300-315 degrees.

Actually, I am not holding my breath on it turning west just as yet until that upper level lowl slightly NW of it dissipates.

[rob8303]

Rob, it does look like she's trying to pull westerly in this image:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

thanks for your reply, Dixiebreeze. great to have you on the site. how are you anyway? I remember you from gopbi

[cycloneye]

WNW 295-300 degrees 20.2n at this time.

[rob8303]

Cycloneye, you're the moderator here so you can help. Is that 20.2 N 295-300 degree motion indicative this is going to stay wnw for a while or is it the beginning of the curve? And when will we know, know if this is turning west or not.

[blizzard20]

post the links ok.

[mf_dolphin]

Unless my eyes are totally gone, it's still WNW at the current time. I find it hard to believe that it won't turn more westerly the only question is when and for how long. The ULL to the west of Isabel is forecast to pull out to the NW pretty quickly in the next 36 hours or so. This is one of the factors I believe that will allow the more westerly track or even a slight WSW track. The good news is the longer it maintains the WNW track the better for our friends in Puerto Rico and the islands. The one thing it doesn't mean (IMO) is that the Bahamas and Florida are safe.....

[cycloneye]

It will stay WNW until the ridge builds strong and the ULL in front goes away but if those 2 dont come to happen adios Isabel from any US threat but Bermuda again ??? however time will tell what will happen.

[LarryWx]

My own rough approximation of the location of the center of the eye as of 2:45 PM EDT (based on the floater) is that it is 20.1N and 47.5W. IF that is true, then it has moved about .5 N and .6W over the last 4 hours, which is hardly a westward movement and not too far from a NW movement. Clearly it has been moving ~WNW and not W as of 2:45 PM and still shows no trend toward a more westerly motion just yet in my opinion.
When is the westerly motion supposed to begin according to the bulk of the models/NHC?

[cycloneye]

It was supposed to begin today at this point in latitud or even a tad lower at around 19.5n.

[ameriwx2003]

I will let DT do the talking:):)

WAIT until later WED folks By DT-wxrisk
again we all went through this with Floyd and more recently FABIAN. Many kept doubting the turn would come at all...

It did. This time around the data HERE (please look)
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_13.gif

clearly shows the turn coming late tonight and wednesday. It has been that way for 3-4 days. IF by late wednesday Isabel has NOT turned TOWARDS say 285 or 275... then we will see..

WAIT.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_13.gif

[ColdFront77]

Hurricane Isabel's positions between late Sunday night and late last night:

Sunday, September 7 at 11:00 PM EDT: 16.1ºN 40.2ºW
Monday, September 8 at 11:00 PM EDT: 18.5ºN 44.5ºW
Tuesday, September 9 at 11:00 PM EDT: 20.6ºN 48.8ºW

Isabel moved 2.4ºN northward and 4.3ºW eastward, between Sunday night and Monday night and 2.1ºN northward and 4.3ºW eastward, between Monday night and last night.

2.4ºN and 2.1ºN are about 166 and about 145 miles, respectively. 4.3ºW is about 284 miles.

This means that the storm moved 62% to 67% westward compared to its northerly movement during Monday.

Remember, also... some of these mileage totals are not always movements; but occasionally relocations of the center.