Disconcerting 00Z GFS

[MWatkins]

To add to the trepidation...

The 00Z GFS midway through day 5 starts to build a significant 594DM ridge in the western Atlantic due north of Isabel where one was not present in the previous runs...much like the 12Z euro did btw...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108s.gif

Compare with the 18Z model at the same verify time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114s.gif

Significantly stonger with the steering high and further west.

This is not good news.

MW

[Ground_Zero_92]

Wow, it gets worse by each run.

[Scott_inVA]

To add to the trepidation...

The 00Z GFS midway through day 5 starts to build a significant 594DM ridge in the western Atlantic due north of Isabel where one was not present in the previous runs...much like the 12Z euro did btw...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108s.gif

Compare with the 18Z model at the same verify time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114s.gif

Significantly stonger with the steering high and further west.

This is not good news.

MW

Agreed.

While only seeing the 0Z out to 114hrs ATTM, this is a correct analysis.

The WREL map only goes to 114 as well w/0Z GFS. Little problem I'm trying to sniff out.

Also, tropical text is back at OSU. The link on WREL's model map page is working (at least it is now :? )

Scott

[John]

I have been looking at the same Data, I fully agree Not Good. Im not sure when the last time was other than Andrew I seen a system this size connect just right with a ridge. Just about everything im seeing suggests the all clear streak for FL is about to be challenged big time. My only hope is that should this event materialize people are ready, with so much wolf crying im afraid they wont be. In fact other than old time Floridians im not sure the new comers have ever experienced a land falling Tropical system. The way things are shaping up with Isabel it's a real possibility she is likely to impact the coast, let's pray people listen and heed warnings.

[wow]

oh i can see this one ending up around the SE coast so easily with the ridge centered where it is

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

UPDATE: she hits the N FL/GA or SC coast

312 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_312m.gif