TD14 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING VERY FEW... IF ANY...
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS
CANNOT BE DERIVED. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ADVECTING A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION
DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTH. RECENT SSMI OVERPASSES SHOW NO INDICATION
OF A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KNOT
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY.

INFRARED FIXES ARE WIDELY DISTRIBUTED ABOUT AN ELONGATED CLOUD
SYSTEM CENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN
360/10. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND
NOGAPS LOSE THE CIRCULATION WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION EVEN EXISTS NOW. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST
INTENSIFICATION...THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZATION AND THE SUB-26C SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.1N 25.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.0N 25.4W 25 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 19.7N 26.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 22.8N 27.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED