Officials and Media - hold accountable for S-S surge graphic

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Officials and Media - hold accountable for S-S surge graphic

#1 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:51 am

While the NHC has officially stopped making any mention of surge heights in the revised Saffir-Simpson scale since 2010, many of the graphics that local emergency management officials and local and national media outlets continue to use make specific reference to forecast surge height based on storm category. This was not only incorrect info with a storm like Sandy whose forecast surge was far greater than what is typical for her wind speeds (which in terms of intensity, weren't near record-breaking anywhere), it is also causing confusion for the public and possibly keeping people from preparing for a life-threatening surge event like Sandy caused.

These are graphics that were used last week by local officials in NYC along with 2 news media outlets. Based on the fact that Sandy was a Cat 1 (and actually never officially produced sustained hurricane force winds at any reporting station), how is any one supposed to make sense of the grave surge warning the NHC gave with each advisory if a storm is forecast to be extra-tropical/a t.s./Cat 1 at most at landfall looking at the maps below? Any reference to storm category as a basis for Sandy's surge made from any Government official to any media outlet should have been immediately corrected and retracted.

Image

Image

Image

I would go as far as to say that the NHC needs to embark on a public service and media blitz to get local emergency mgt officials, state/fed govt, and all media outlets to stop using surge graphics that reference storm category. The NHC has great graphics they use to forecast surge probability but if they don't embark on a media and public awareness campaign, 99% of folks won't see them. Local governments and local and national media need to be educated on what graphics to use as reference and be held accountable if they don't for dissementating inadequate and erroneous info the public in an emergency.

99.5% of the public is getting their storm updates from the news - tv or internet or even smart phone. If the news is reporting different info than the NHC, and local officials are doing the same, that is unacceptable in 2012 when anyone can go on to the NHC website and see their forecasts and forecast graphics regarding surge probability (not based on wind), let alone those who shold be held to a hight standard of accuracy in reporting.

This is not exclusive to NYC media and officials either - this is an issue that could put folks from Maine to Texas at risk - Ike was 'just a Cat 2' but had a surge more like a Cat 4/5, etc etc. This will happen again soon in a place where surge can far exceed wind...the Gulf Coast or Northeast or somewhere else.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: Officials and Media - hold accountable for S-S surge graphic

#2 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 04, 2012 3:49 pm

Part of the problem before and during Ike was local officials such as the mayor of Galveston saying "it is only a CAT2" and delaying evacuation orders till it was too late even as the NHC had been saying for days that life threatening surge could be expected with Hurricane Ike. NHC has been stressing for 2 years that surge is no longer tied to their forecasts using SSHWS yet officials continue to ignore it. SMH
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#3 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 04, 2012 3:51 pm

I believe it to be the biggest problem for the NHC/NOAA to solve. Ike, Isaac and now Sandy are just recent examples. Everyone, including us and the media focus on winds. Even if the NHC has removed linking surge to SSHS, the public still does. Most people die from inland flooding and surge. NHC has their work cut out for them to push that message to the public.
0 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

#4 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Nov 04, 2012 5:05 pm

The CERA graphics have no mention of category and were very clear and helpful - they just show the expected surge.

http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera-nc/cera-nc.cgi

Somehow the surge needs to be shown in comparison to flooding levels, like those tidal guages we were all watching for the Battery the night Sandy hit, or this example for Atlantic City from Jeff Masters' blog:

Image

Thus one would know that an expected total storm tide of 9 ft. in Atlantic City would = severe major flooding.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re:

#5 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:48 pm

You are right - we even do the 'wind' thing here - we have threads discussing the 'drought' of 'majors' making landfall in the U.S. since 2005...and technically that is true (although i still say if Gustav in re-analysis had been bumped up 1 mph at landfall from the official 110 mph, the 'drought would have had a break).

A change in thinking is really required...we had a system that had a whole bunch of 'worst cases' in terms of surge do potentially $50 billion+ in damage and - let's keep it real - had no reported sustained hurricane force winds in the U.S. An enormous tropical storm/Cat 1 in terms of wind just dealt us an incredible blow and there will be folks who say, 'where are the majors?' Imagine Sandy's size with 300 miles of 100 mph winds building a surge that would have been 15-25' at Battery Point, not 13.5'.

Just as Katrina wasn't New Orlean's worst case, Sandy wasn't New York's. In NYC's real worst case, a marathon couldn't be run and schools couldn't re-open city-wide less than a week after the storm hit. Sandy's surge was devestating...her winds and rainfall were not. Highrise after highrise in Houston post-Alicia and Miami/Fort Laudredale post-Wilma had so many windows blown out it looked like a bomb went off. NYC didn't see that type of wind - but they could have. Or imagine a storm dumping Agnes rain in PA with Sandy's surge. Add another $20 billion in damage at least.

To see extremely competent officials in the top city in the world in terms of understanding and knowing how to deal with disaster drop the ball and use mixed messages, outdated maps, etc etc is unacceptable, just as it would be irresponsible to say NYC has seen the worst they could ever see and they should be in the clear for another 100 years or so.

The NHC has a huge challenge on its hands - and it's not getting the public to understand that surge and winds can be at different risk threats in a given storm. It is convincing the local, state, and federal official of this, convincing tv mets and local news and national news of this, and so on.

There is a $150 billion, $250 billion even, storm that could happen any year now if things come together 'all wrong' for NYC, Miami/Fort Lauderdale, New Orleans, Houston, etc...and it won't take a Cat 5 to get to those damage $ in any of these locations 'worst case'. It could be a non-major even.

On the brighter side, the next time any storm threatens NJ/NYC, i guarantee folks will prepare - maybe overprepare. Getting the crap kicked out of you will have that effect on you for at least the next storm to threaten.

RL3AO wrote:I believe it to be the biggest problem for the NHC/NOAA to solve. Ike, Isaac and now Sandy are just recent examples. Everyone, including us and the media focus on winds. Even if the NHC has removed linking surge to SSHS, the public still does. Most people die from inland flooding and surge. NHC has their work cut out for them to push that message to the public.
0 likes   

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

#6 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:37 pm

I can't help but notice that even the official NYC surge and evacuation maps don't show Staten Island.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Officials and Media - hold accountable for S-S surge graphic

#7 Postby MGC » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:56 pm

Ivan, Katrina, Ike, Isaac and now Sandy....all had very high surges that killed and destroyed billions. Yet, the NHC is rating hurricanes on wind alone. How many times have we heard "it is only a Cat-1." Too many people have needlessly died because of storm surge the past decade. Storms need to be rated for surge not wind. Just my opinion but until you have smelled the decaying bodies of people that have died in storm surge that should be alive because they did not or could not understand the hazard because "its only a Cat-1" This should and must be a top priority of emergency planners and the NHC.......MGC
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd, weatherSnoop and 50 guests