12.5N 20W - is 96L

[AJC3]

Normally don't like to start these threads, but there's decent convergence of CU lines into this feature, and what appears to be a developing mid level vort center.

Seems like it's a good candidate to become our next invest.

[Aric Dunn]

Normally don't like to start these threads, but there's decent convergence of CU lines into this feature, and what appears to be a developing mid level vort center.

Seems like it's a good candidate to become our next invest.

wow you just beat me to it. lol. It appears to be in a conducive environment.

[HurricaneFan]

Normally don't like to start these threads, but there's decent convergence of CU lines into this feature, and what appears to be a developing mid level vort center.

Seems like it's a good candidate to become our next invest.

wow you just beat me to it. lol. It appears to be in a conducive environment.

Is this following the same track as 94L?

[AJC3]

Normally don't like to start these threads, but there's decent convergence of CU lines into this feature, and what appears to be a developing mid level vort center.

Seems like it's a good candidate to become our next invest.

wow you just beat me to it. lol. It appears to be in a conducive environment.

Is this following the same track as 94L?

It's early.

IIRC several of the global model runs from a few days ago had spun this system up behind 94L. It doesn't seem that they are doing a whole lot with it anymore, at least for now.

[northjaxpro]

There was a AFD from San Juan, PR NWS office which cycloneye posted earlier today about this tropical wave emerging off the coast behind 94L.

MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
WAVE THAT WAS NEAR 35 WEST AT 19/09Z. BUT...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED THE WAVE IS ADVANCING UNIMPEDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLIER AND EARLIER. AT PRESENT THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS IT
RATHER SLOWLY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL ARRIVE THEN OR
SLIGHTLY EARLIER. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND AFRICAN DUST STREAMING TO
THE NORTH OF THE WAVE IS LIKELY SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT JUST AS IT
HAS THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE ENDEAVORED TO STRENGTHEN.
ALSO THE WAVE IN QUESTION APPEARS TO BE GROWING AT THE EXPENSE OF
THE WAVE AHEAD OF IT WHICH IT IS OVERTAKING. THEREFORE HAVE
INCREASED THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND THE POPS OVER A MORE GENERAL
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE
AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING THE CURRENT TIMING TO
INFLUENCE THE DIRECTION WITHOUT EXPLICITLY DEFINING THE CENTER OR
TRACK...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO VEER NORTH AND TO
SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
FRIDAY...THEREFORE EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WITH REGARDS TO
THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS
ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

So, preliminary indications are that this new emerging wave off the African coast will develop per GFS and follow in on the heels of 94L into the Eastern Caribbean next weekend.

[cycloneye]

It got a circle.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[CrazyC83]

Should be 96L soon at this rate.

[USTropics]

This is invest 96L now:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113409&p=2252846#p2252846