Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#1 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 08, 2012 6:36 pm

Since I didn't see a thread started for this area yet...here goes.

I believe that this area near Jamaica, Haiti, and PR is what the models are hinting at sending up towards the GOM towards this weekend.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2903
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#2 Postby StormTracker » Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:02 pm

As a matter of fact CH7(WSVN)mentioned an area of disturbance in the area you are referencing last night and I have been waiting to see something pop up about it here on S2K! Can you post a graphic to show what you are talking about?
0 likes   
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Re: Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#3 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:42 pm

FWIW. Joe B mentioned that yesterday.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#4 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:19 pm

both the CMC and NOGAPS have latched on but not the GFS....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Alexis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
Location: Miami,Florida

Re: Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#5 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:39 am

ROCK wrote:both the CMC and NOGAPS have latched on but not the GFS....


It was only one run, and the CMC doesn't develop it anymore in the 00z run.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Alexis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
Location: Miami,Florida

#6 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:05 am

00z NOGAPS now shows the main vorticity splitting and spawning 2 TC's, one going to the FL big bend and the other to mid Texas coast(this one being stronger than the Fl one).
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#7 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:42 am

I think it will be a rain maker for Florida, but the shear too much for development.

My opinion and not to be confused with an Official Forecast!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#8 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:49 am

ROCK wrote:both the CMC and NOGAPS have latched on but not the GFS....


The Canadian and NOGAPS weren't developing the wave in the eastern Caribbean. A close look at the projected low-level vorticity in each model indicates that they developed something moving northward off the NW coast of Colombia. Bogus, most likely.
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#9 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:31 am

From the 8am TWD: TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N76W TO 22N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 69W-79W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
70W-78W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W WHICH IS
PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Houstonia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 829
Age: 60
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 9:45 am
Location: Sharpstown, Houston, Harris County, Southeast Texas.

Re: Greater Antilles Wave - Models hint at possible GOM threat..

#10 Postby Houstonia » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:07 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012080906&set=Tropical

Is that the same storm, now headed for Corpus Christi area?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricane2000, lolitx and 62 guests