What season similar to 2011?

[HUC]

Hello all friends.
i'am curious to known if therE is an other season with the six, and probably the 7 first tropical cyclones never reached hurricane status????

[Gustywind]

Hello all friends.
i'am curious to known if therE is an other season with the six, and probably the 7 first tropical cyclones never reached hurricane status????

Glad to see you there HUC That's a pretty interresting topic. Thanks to you for this question.

[Gustywind]

HUC more recently the 2002 season tied 2011 with 6 named tropical storms:

Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Storm Bertha
Tropical Storm Cristobal
Tropical Storm Dolly
Tropical Storm Edouard
Tropical Storm Fay
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002atlan.shtml

[jinftl]

One big difference, Fay formed on September 5, 2002!

We have had 6 TS to date, but check out the date!!! Since 1995, only 2 seasons have had more named systems by this date in August - 1995 and 2005.

HUC more recently the 2002 season tied 2011 with 6 named tropical storms:

Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Storm Bertha
Tropical Storm Cristobal
Tropical Storm Dolly
Tropical Storm Edouard
Tropical Storm Fay
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002atlan.shtml

[HUC]

jinftl wrote:
One big difference, Fay formed on September 5, 2002!
We have had 6 TS to date, but check out the date!!! Since 1995, only 2 seasons have had more named systems by this date in August - 1995 and 2005.

Yes more total, but in this total there are some hurricanes ( Erin and Felix ) in 1995 ( Dennis ,Emily ) in 2005...
In 2011 neither of the 6 or 7 tropical cyclones was of hurricane intensity...A sign for the entire season???

[Gustywind]

Hey Huc, off topic, 1950 season have 7 streak hurricanes and 6 streak of them were major .
Here is the list:

Major Hurricane Able

Major Hurricane Baker

Major Hurricane Charlie

Major Hurricane Dog

Major Hurricane Easy

Major Hurricane Fox

Hurricane Georges

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1950.asp

[Gustywind]

jinftl wrote:
One big difference, Fay formed on September 5, 2002!
We have had 6 TS to date, but check out the date!!! Since 1995, only 2 seasons have had more named systems by this date in August - 1995 and 2005.

Yes more total, but in this total there are some hurricanes ( Erin and Felix ) in 1995 ( Dennis ,Emily ) in 2005...
In 2011 neither of the 6 or 7 tropical cyclones was of hurricane intensity...A sign for the entire season???

We should have to wait and see but definitely an interresting thing to note for a debut. As we're entering the heart of the season things should continue to heating up for sure. Matter of time.

[KWT]

Its an odd season thats for sure, not sure there is really any season I can find that is similar at the moment.

Pretty much we have an El nino type development via cutoff lows becoming warm cored...but the numbers are far higher then you'd ever likely see in an El nino season...

Plus...we are actually quite close to a La nina in terms of SST numbers. Will probably have a season like 2007 now I think, plenty of named systems, but a bit thin on the ground when it comes to real quality systems...bar maybe the odd one here and there.

[jinftl]

The period from July 18, 2005 until Irene became a hurricane on August 14, 2005 bears some resemblance to the last month of the current season in terms of area of development and strength (or lack thereof) of the systems Franklin, Gert, and Harvey, and TD 10.

August 14, 2005 was also the date TD10 dissipated east of the Islands....it would be part of the foundation of TD12 that formed 10 days later in the Bahamas and then became that K storm.

From July 13 (when powerhouse Emily became a hurricane) until Irene became a hurricane on August 14, there was a solid month without any hurricanes forming in 2005. Just 4 TS and 1 TD.



"Tropical Storm Franklin formed off the Bahamas on July 18. The storm moved northeast and became extratropical off the coast of Atlantic Canada without ever having threatened land.

Tropical Storm Gert followed soon after on July 24. Gert struck Veracruz near where Emily had hit a few days before; roughly 1,000 people were evacuated for fear of flooding, but no damages or deaths were reported.

August like July, August also got off to a fast start: Tropical Storm Harvey formed southwest of Bermuda on August 3. Harvey dropped some rain on Bermuda as it moved to the northeast; it became extratropical on August 8 in the open Atlantic Ocean.

The tropical depression that would become Hurricane Irene formed west of the Cape Verde Islands on August 4. The system moved west and north and did not reach hurricane strength until August 14, at which point it became the second Cape Verde-type hurricane of the season. Irene turned northeast and briefly reached Category 2 status before weakening and becoming extratropical on August 18. It never posed a threat to land.

Tropical Depression Ten formed east of the Lesser Antilles on August 13. The system dissipated the next day. Its remnants soon merged with another system and eventually contributed to the formation of Hurricane Katrina."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlan ... ane_season

[NDG]

I am thinking that overall is a blend of 2008 & 2010

[Ptarmigan]

HUC more recently the 2002 season tied 2011 with 6 named tropical storms:

Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Storm Bertha
Tropical Storm Cristobal
Tropical Storm Dolly
Tropical Storm Edouard
Tropical Storm Fay
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002atlan.shtml

Same with 2008. 2002 was an El Nino season.

[Ptarmigan]

Its an odd season thats for sure, not sure there is really any season I can find that is similar at the moment.

Pretty much we have an El nino type development via cutoff lows becoming warm cored...but the numbers are far higher then you'd ever likely see in an El nino season...

Plus...we are actually quite close to a La nina in terms of SST numbers. Will probably have a season like 2007 now I think, plenty of named systems, but a bit thin on the ground when it comes to real quality systems...bar maybe the odd one here and there.

I am thinking 2007 too because there were many named storms, but not many hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes was within average, but were Category 5 back to back. 2007 was also a La Nina. I am concerned that this lack of hurricanes will give a way to a wave of hurricanes. You know how nature is.

[Gustywind]

HUC more recently the 2002 season tied 2011 with 6 named tropical storms:

Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Storm Bertha
Tropical Storm Cristobal
Tropical Storm Dolly
Tropical Storm Edouard
Tropical Storm Fay
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002atlan.shtml

Same with 2008. 2002 was an El Nino season.

Ok thanks , but why 2008? (maybe a mistake from you?). 2008 have not 6 STREAK tropical features (at Tropical Storm status) compared to 2011. And we're not so far from 7 as TD7 could be a TS given the latest TWO of the NHC). 2008 season source: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2008.asp

[Ptarmigan]

Ok thanks , but why 2008? (maybe a mistake from you?). 2008 have not 6 STREAK tropical features (at Tropical Storm status) compared to 2011. And we're not so far from 7 as TD7 could be a TS given the latest TWO of the NHC). 2008 season source: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2008.asp

2008 had six named storms by mid-August. Yes, there were two hurricane by than. Sorry for the confusion.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Gustywind]

Ok thanks , but why 2008? (maybe a mistake from you?). 2008 have not 6 STREAK tropical features (at Tropical Storm status) compared to 2011. And we're not so far from 7 as TD7 could be a TS given the latest TWO of the NHC). 2008 season source: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2008.asp

2008 had six named storms by mid-August. Yes, there were two hurricane by than. Sorry for the confusion.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

No problem my friend you're welcome.

[FireRat]

I think 2011 will make a name for its own.

Resembles 2007 mixed with 2002 in trends with storm strength, but the speed of this season is much faster. We might have the "H" storm a few days down the road and even the "I" with the wave coming off Africa by next week. It will be interesting to see if monsters are born once we're in the true heart of the season (Aug. 20-Sept. 25).

[Stormcenter]

The number of named storm means little to me. Especially we you consider what we've
had so far. I'll take 30 of what we've had so far any day compared to 1 Katrina or Andrew type storm.
Anyway as I've stated before something is just not right so far in 2011 for major development.
I'm not complaining. We'll see if things change. JMHO

I think 2011 will make a name for its own.

Resembles 2007 mixed with 2002 in trends with storm strength, but the speed of this season is much faster. We might have the "H" storm a few days down the road and even the "I" with the wave coming off Africa by next week. It will be interesting to see if monsters are born once we're in the true heart of the season (Aug. 20-Sept. 25).

[Aric Dunn]

Here is my quick take on this. besides trying to compare the times when TC's formed I want to compare the pattern and something people over look sometimes... sst's and heat content. some forget that the ocean provides the majority energy that affects weather patterns. its almost a 1 to 1 relationship. for instance El-nino. well when specific areas of the atlantic are warmer than normal it affects the pattern. In short its only a matter of time this season before we have a pattern more like 2005. The western atlantic, gulf and NW carib are all a good deal above average while the eastern atlantic east of brumuda are not. eventually the warm waters currently protected by the persistent trough on the east coast will open up and land-falling intensifying hurricanes are a distinct possibility.

[HUC]

"Gary Padgett (TC historian extraordinaire) mentioned to me yesterday that Gert...if it does not become a hurricane...would make seven tropical storms without a hurricane to start this Atlantic season...which would be a new record.

In the recon world we like to use the term "tropical trash" to describe weak and/or poorly organized storms that are struggling against some negative forcing (dry air, shear, low OHC, land interaction etc) that aren't much "fun" to fly. Seems that every system this year has had just enough to develop into a TC (often in spite of global and mesoscale models predicting little or no development) but the model's lack of enthusiasm reflecting these negative environmental conditions is ultimately borne out.

The demise of AL93 seems particularly typical of 2011. A few days ago, both dynamical and statistical guidance suggested a hurricane somewhere near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday or so....but it was very inconsistent run to run (another common feature of 2011 thus far). The GFS and ECMWF seem to want to hang on to some remnant vorticity crossing the Caribbean over the next several days, but neither see very favorable conditions in its path. "
That's an opinion frpm G.Padgett,very similar with mine.
But we are juet entering the active part of the season,and things can change rapidly....

[Gustywind]

"Gary Padgett (TC historian extraordinaire) mentioned to me yesterday that Gert...if it does not become a hurricane...would make seven tropical storms without a hurricane to start this Atlantic season...which would be a new record.

In the recon world we like to use the term "tropical trash" to describe weak and/or poorly organized storms that are struggling against some negative forcing (dry air, shear, low OHC, land interaction etc) that aren't much "fun" to fly. Seems that every system this year has had just enough to develop into a TC (often in spite of global and mesoscale models predicting little or no development) but the model's lack of enthusiasm reflecting these negative environmental conditions is ultimately borne out.

The demise of AL93 seems particularly typical of 2011. A few days ago, both dynamical and statistical guidance suggested a hurricane somewhere near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday or so....but it was very inconsistent run to run (another common feature of 2011 thus far). The GFS and ECMWF seem to want to hang on to some remnant vorticity crossing the Caribbean over the next several days, but neither see very favorable conditions in its path. "
That's an opinion frpm G.Padgett,very similar with mine.
But we are juet entering the active part of the season,and things can change rapidly....

Pretty informative and pertinent post HUC . As you said cleary... things can change quickly 100% agree wiht you. And that said, we should not let our guard down and sleeping with these previous "trash systems" but tracking any twave as we're entering the heart of this season. Let's wait and see what could happens.