Pouch P15L- SE of CV Islands (Is invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM TWD:

A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AREA FROM
16N21W TO 10N18W ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N-14N.

[cycloneye]

Look at the spin of this system that is behind 92L.

[ConvergenceZone]

Look at the spin of this system that is behind 92L.

Luis, is that the one that the models are developing?

[cycloneye]

Look at the spin of this system that is behind 92L.

Luis, is that the one that the models are developing?

There is some debate about the models and which system they are developing. However, I think things are becoming more clear as is again 92L and more models latch on the invest including HWRF and GFDL.

[cycloneye]

Will 92L and this area merge? The 8 AM TWO includes this area.

A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS shows this area in 24 hours SW of the CV Islands,....out to 132 hours very strong

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif

[Ivanhater]

144 hours



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ivanhater]

156 hours...big high to the north and high building off the east coast



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ivanhater]

Well this is interesting...High built over the east coast

174 hours



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well this is interesting...High built over the east coast

174 hours



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Indeed, unlike Emily I'm not sure (with the possible setup) this one will miss the mainland.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

It recurves..this one may be a little early before the possible pattern shift....It is very interesting that the globals have been showing the big ridge shifting to the NE by the end of August...

[GCANE]

This is now tagged P15L

[Ivanhater]

HWRF

[cycloneye]

I modified the location at title as it is becomming clear this is well SE of what I was tracking which was east of 92L. So the confusion is evaporating as this system is the one the models have striking the Leewards.And more clear now as is pouch P15L.

[cycloneye]

Is now invest 93L.Go to active storms/invest forum to continue the discissions.